Mathematical modelling and analysis of transmission dynamics of Lassa fever

Abstract: In this work, a periodically-forced seasonal non-autonomous system of a non-linear ordinary differential equation is developed that captures the dynamics of Lassa fever transmission and seasonal variation in the birth of mastomys rodents where time was measured in days to capture seasonality. It was shown that the model is epidemiologically meaningful and mathematically well-posed by using the results from the qualitative properties of the solution of the model. It was established that in order to eliminate Lassa fever disease, treatments with Ribavirin must be provided early to reduce mortality and other preventive measures like an educational campaign, community hygiene, Isolation of infected humans, and culling/destruction of rodents must be applied to also reduce the morbidity of the disease. Finally, the obtained results gave a primer framework for planning and designing cost-effective strategies for good interventions in eliminating Lassa fever.

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Summary: Sub-Saharan Africa harbours the majority of the burden of Lassa fever. Clinical diseases, as well as high seroprevalence, have been documented in Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Guinea, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Senegal, Upper Volta, Gambia, and Mali. Deaths from Lassa fever occur all year round but naturally peak during the dry season. Annually, the number of people infected is estimated at \(100,000\) to \(300,000\), with approximately \(5,000\) deaths. There have been some work done on the dynamics of Lassa fever disease transmission, but to the best of our knowledge, none has been able to capture the seasonal variation of \textit{Mastomys} rodent population and its impact on the transmission dynamics. In this work, a periodically forced seasonal nonautonomous system of a nonlinear ordinary differential equation is developed that captures the dynamics of Lassa fever transmission and seasonal variation in the birth of \textit{Mastomys} rodents where time was measured in days to capture seasonality. It was shown that the model is epidemiologically meaningful and mathematically well posed by using the results from the qualitative properties of the solution of the model. A time-dependent basic reproduction number \(R_L(t)\) is obtained such that its yearly average is written as \(\widetilde{R}_L<1\), when the disease does not invade the population (means that the number of infected humans always decreases in the seasons of transmission), and \(\widetilde{R}_L>1\), when the disease remains constantly and is invading the population, and it was detected that \(\widetilde{R}_L\neq R_L\). We also performed some evaluation of the Lassa fever disease intervention strategies using the elasticity of the equilibrial prevalence in order to predict the optimal intervention strategies that can be useful in guiding the local national control program on Lassa fever disease to make a proper decision on the intervention packages. Numerical simulations were carried out to illustrate the analytical results, and we found that the numerical simulations of the model showed that possible combined intervention strategies would reduce the spread of the disease. It was established that, to eliminate Lassa fever disease, treatments with ribavirin must be provided early to reduce mortality and other preventive measures like an educational campaign, community hygiene, isolation of infected humans, and culling/destruction of rodents must be applied to also reduce the morbidity of the disease. Finally, the obtained results gave a primary framework for planning and designing cost-effective strategies for good interventions in eliminating Lassa fever.

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