A functional equation of tail-balance for continuous signals in the Condorcet jury theorem

DOI10.1007/S00010-020-00750-1zbMATH Open1456.91044arXiv1911.11827OpenAlexW3084299079MaRDI QIDQ2227520FDOQ2227520

Authors: Bo Chen, Steve Alpern, A. J. Ostaszewski 

Publication date: 15 February 2021

Published in: Aequationes Mathematicae (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Consider an odd-sized jury, which determines a majority verdict between two equiprobable states of Nature. If each juror independently receives a binary signal identifying the correct state with identical probability $p$, then the probability of a correct verdict tends to one as the jury size tends to infinity (Condorcet, 1785). Recently, the first two authors developed a model where jurors sequentially receive signals from an interval according to a distribution, which depends on the state of Nature and on the juror's "ability", and vote sequentially. This paper shows that to mimic Condorcet's binary signal, such a distribution must satisfy a functional equation related to tail-balance, that is, to the ratio $alpha(t)$ of the probability that a mean-zero random variable satisfies $X>t$ given that $|X|>t$. In particular, we show that under natural symmetry assumptions the tail-balances $alpha(t)$ uniquely determine the distribution.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.11827

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Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Functional equations for real functions (39B22) Voting theory (91B12)

Cites Work

• Title not available (Why is that?)
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• Homomorphisms from Functional Equations in Probability
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Cited In (1)

• Optimizing voting order on sequential juries: a median voter theorem and beyond

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