Sensitivity of inferences in forensic genetics to assumptions about founding genes

DOI10.1214/09-AOAS235MaRDI QIDQ2270671zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors P. J. Green, J. Mortera

Publication date 29 July 2009

Published in The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/0908.2862

zbMATH Keywords

Bayesian networksinbreedingkinshipheterogeneous populationlinear fractional programmingidentity by descentcoancestry coefficientconstrained steepest descentcriminal identificationdisputed paternityDNA mixturesuncertainty in allele frequenciesPólya urn

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Applications of statistics (62P99) Applications of mathematical programming (90C90) Genetics and epigenetics (92D10)

Abstract: Many forensic genetics problems can be handled using structured systems of discrete variables, for which Bayesian networks offer an appealing practical modeling framework, and allow inferences to be computed by probability propagation methods. However, when standard assumptions are violated--for example, when allele frequencies are unknown, there is identity by descent or the population is heterogeneous--dependence is generated among founding genes, that makes exact calculation of conditional probabilities by propagation methods less straightforward. Here we illustrate different methodologies for assessing sensitivity to assumptions about founders in forensic genetics problems. These include constrained steepest descent, linear fractional programming and representing dependence by structure. We illustrate these methods on several forensic genetics examples involving criminal identification, simple and complex disputed paternity and DNA mixtures.

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Cited in

(5)

• Overdispersion in allelic counts and \(\theta\)-correction in forensic genetics
• Estimation of parameters in DNA mixture analysis
• Computational aspects of DNA mixture analysis
• Probabilistic Expert Systems for Forensic Inference from Genetic Markers
• Forensic science and how statistics can help it

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