Accounting for model errors in iterative ensemble smoothers

DOI10.1007/S10596-019-9819-ZzbMATH Open1421.86011arXiv1806.00237OpenAlexW2962814906WikidataQ127968963 ScholiaQ127968963MaRDI QIDQ2321967FDOQ2321967

Geir Evensen

Publication date: 27 August 2019

Published in: Computational Geosciences (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: In the strong-constraint formulation of the history-matching problem, we assume that all the model errors relate to a selection of uncertain model input parameters. One does not account for additional model errors that could result from, e.g., excluded uncertain parameters, neglected physics in the model formulation, the use of an approximate model forcing, or discretization errors resulting from numerical approximations. If parameters with significant uncertainties are unaccounted for, there is a risk for an unphysical update, of some uncertain parameters, that compensates for errors in the omitted parameters. This paper gives the theoretical foundation for introducing model errors in ensemble methods for history matching. In particular, we explain procedures for practically including model errors in iterative ensemble smoothers like ESMDA and IES. Also, we demonstrate the impact of adding (or neglecting) model errors in the parameter-estimation problem.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.00237

zbMATH Keywords

data assimilationhistory matchingmodel errorsIESiterative ensemble smoothersESMDA

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Geostatistics (86A32) Inverse problems in geophysics (86A22)

Cites Work

• The ensemble Kalman filter for combined state and parameter estimation
• Levenberg-Marquardt forms of the iterative ensemble smoother for efficient history matching and uncertainty quantification
• Deterministic Treatment of Model Error in Geophysical Data Assimilation
• Analysis of iterative ensemble smoothers for solving inverse problems
• Nonlinear and Stochastic Climate Dynamics
• Conditioning reservoir models on rate data using ensemble smoothers
• Title not available (Why is that?)

Cited In (3)

• Formulating the history matching problem with consistent error statistics
• An international initiative of predicting the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic using ensemble data assimilation
• Conditioning reservoir models on rate data using ensemble smoothers

Uses Software

• EnKF

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