Multi-colony Wright-Fisher with seed-bank

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Publication:2397602



Abstract: We consider a multi-colony version of the Wright-Fisher model with seed-bank that was recently introduced by Blath et al. Individuals live in colonies and change type via resampling and mutation. Each colony contains a seed-bank that acts as a genetic reservoir. Individuals can enter the seed-bank and become dormant or can exit the seed-bank and become active. In each colony at each generation a fixed fraction of individuals swap state, drawn randomly from the active and the dormant population. While dormant, individuals suspend their resampling. While active, individuals resample from their own colony, but also from different colonies according to a random walk transition kernel representingmigration. Both active and dormant individuals mutate. We derive a formula for the probability that two individuals drawn randomly from two given colonies are identical by descent, i.e., share a common ancestor. This formula, which is formulated in Fourier language, is valid when the colonies form a discrete torus. We consider the special case of a symmetric slow seed-bank, for which in each colony half of the individuals are in the seed-bank and at each generation the fraction of individuals that swap state is small. This leads to a simpler formula, from which we are able to deduce how the probability to be identical by descent depends on the distance between the two colonies and various relevant parameters. Through an analysis of random walk Green functions, we are able to derive explicit scaling expressions when mutation is slower than migration. We also compute the spatial second moment of the probability to be identical by descent for all parameters when the torus becomes large. For the special case of a symmetric slow seed-bank, we again obtain explicit scaling expressions.


This paper focuses on the Wright-Fisher model (the multi-colony version), initially described in [\textit{J. Blath} et al., ``Genealogy of a Wright-Fisher model with strong seedbank component, Prog. Probab. 69, 81--100 (2015; \url{doi:10.1007/978-3-319-13984-5_4})] in which colonies built around a seed bank, acting as a genetic reservoir, can evolve through resampling and mutation. The paper commences with a detailed description of the model and its earlier versions (by \textit{I. Kaj} et al. [J. Appl. Probab. 38, No. 2, 285--300 (2001; Zbl 0989.92017)]), followed by a description of the role and consequences of using a seed bank. Next, the multi-colony extension is presented and the effect of migration and/or mutation studied. The authors also discuss the effect of special choices of parameters (and of the spatial second moment).











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