Oscillating epidemics in a dynamic network model: stochastic and mean-field analysis

DOI10.1007/S00285-015-0902-3zbMATH Open1333.05276arXiv1410.4953OpenAlexW1915736492WikidataQ40847733 ScholiaQ40847733MaRDI QIDQ264077FDOQ264077

Authors: András Szabó-Solticzky, Luc Berthouze, Istvan Z. Kiss, Péter L. Simon 

Publication date: 5 April 2016

Published in: Journal of Mathematical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: An adaptive network model using SIS epidemic propagation with link-type dependent link activation and deletion is considered. Bifurcation analysis of the pairwise ODE approximation and the network-based stochastic simulation is carried out, showing that three typical behaviours may occur; namely, oscillations can be observed besides disease-free or endemic steady states. The oscillatory behaviour in the stochastic simulations is studied using Fourier analysis, as well as through analysing the exact master equations of the stochastic model. A compact pairwise approximation for the dynamic network case is also developed and, for the case of link-type independent rewiring, the outcome of epidemics and changes in network structure are concurrently presented in a single bifurcation diagram. By going beyond simply comparing simulation results to mean-field models, our approach yields deeper insights into the observed phenomena and help better understand and map out the limitations of mean-field models.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1410.4953

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zbMATH Keywords

oscillationdynamic networkpairwise modelSIS epidemic

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of continuous-time Markov processes on discrete state spaces (60J28) Epidemiology (92D30) Small world graphs, complex networks (graph-theoretic aspects) (05C82) Bifurcation theory for ordinary differential equations (34C23)

Cites Work

• Moment-closure approximations for discrete adaptive networks
• Modeling complex systems with adaptive networks
• Detailed study of bifurcations in an epidemic model on a dynamic network
• Outbreak analysis of an SIS epidemic model with rewiring
• Modelling approaches for simple dynamic networks and applications to disease transmission models
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Exact epidemic models on graphs using graph-automorphism driven lumping

Cited In (16)

• Self-adapting infectious dynamics on random networks
• Modelling approaches for simple dynamic networks and applications to disease transmission models
• Complex contagion leads to complex dynamics in models coupling behaviour and disease
• A non-Markovian SIR network model with fixed infectious period and preventive rewiring
• Modeling of epidemic spreading on multilayer networks in uncertain environments
• Population dynamics on random networks: simulations and analytical models
• Analytic study of bifurcations of the pairwise model for SIS epidemic propagation on an adaptive network
• Complex dynamics of epidemic models on adaptive networks
• Saddle-node bifurcation of limit cycles in an epidemic model with two levels of awareness
• Epidemic threshold in pairwise models for clustered networks: closures and fast correlations
• Nontrivial effects of uncertainty on epidemic spreading under limited resources
• Mapping Out Emerging Network Structures in Dynamic Network Models Coupled with Epidemics
• Complex behaviors of epidemic model with nonlinear rewiring rate
• The effect of avoiding known infected neighbors on the persistence of a recurring infection process
• Adaptive dynamical networks
• Oscillations in epidemic models with spread of awareness

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