Dynamics of stochastic epidemics on heterogeneous networks
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Publication:2249665
DOI10.1007/S00285-013-0679-1zbMATH Open1300.92100arXiv1304.4763OpenAlexW3104522395WikidataQ42264701 ScholiaQ42264701MaRDI QIDQ2249665FDOQ2249665
Publication date: 3 July 2014
Published in: Journal of Mathematical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)
Abstract: Epidemic models currently play a central role in our attempts to understand and control infectious diseases. Here, we derive a model for the diffusion limit of stochastic susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemic dynamics on a heterogeneous network. Using this, we consider analytically the early asymptotic exponential growth phase of such epidemics, showing how the higher order moments of the network degree distribution enter into the stochastic behaviour of the epidemic. We find that the first three moments of the network degree distribution are needed to specify the variance in disease prevalence fully, meaning that the skewness of the degree distribution affects the variance of the prevalence of infection. We compare these asymptotic results to simulation and find a close agreement for city-sized populations.
Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1304.4763
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Cited In (14)
- A way to model stochastic perturbations in population dynamics models with bounded realizations
- Oscillating epidemics in a dynamic network model: stochastic and mean-field analysis
- Heterogeneous network epidemics: real-time growth, variance and extinction of infection
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