Taming the spread of an epidemic by lockdown policies

DOI10.1016/J.JMATECO.2020.102453zbMATH Open1459.91090arXiv2007.10870OpenAlexW3112728604WikidataQ104479872 ScholiaQ104479872MaRDI QIDQ2656366FDOQ2656366

Salvatore Federico, Giorgio Ferrari

Publication date: 11 March 2021

Published in: Journal of Mathematical Economics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We study the problem of a policymaker who aims at taming the spread of an epidemic while minimizing its associated social costs. The main feature of our model lies in the fact that the disease's transmission rate is a diffusive stochastic process whose trend can be adjusted via costly confinement policies. We provide a complete theoretical analysis, as well as numerical experiments illustrating the structure of the optimal lockdown policy. In all our experiments the latter is characterized by three distinct periods: the epidemic is first let freely evolve, then vigorously tamed, and finally a less stringent containment should be adopted. Moreover, the optimal containment policy is such that the product "reproduction number x percentage of susceptible" is kept after a certain date strictly below the critical level of one, although the reproduction number is let oscillate above one in the last more relaxed phase of lockdown. Finally, an increase in the fluctuations of the transmission rate is shown to give rise to an earlier beginning of the optimal lockdown policy, which is also diluted over a longer period of time.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10870

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zbMATH Keywords

epidemicoptimal stochastic controlSIR modelviscosity solutionlockdown

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Viscosity solutions to Hamilton-Jacobi equations in optimal control and differential games (49L25) Economic dynamics (91B55) Optimal stochastic control (93E20)

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Cited In (13)

• Optimal timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions during an epidemic
• Dynamical analysis of healthcare policy effects in an integrated economic-epidemiological model
• Economic epidemiological modelling: a progress report
• Incentives, lockdown, and testing: from Thucydides' analysis to the COVID-19 pandemic
• The hammer and the jab: are COVID-19 lockdowns and vaccinations complements or substitutes?
• Flattening the Curve
• The economics of epidemics and contagious diseases: an introduction
• COVID-19 and Optimal Lockdown Strategies: The Effect of New and More Virulent Strains
• Optimal epidemic control in equilibrium with imperfect testing and enforcement
• Pandemic mitigation: bringing it home
• On the economic growth equilibria during the Covid-19 pandemic
• Isolation in the control of epidemic
• On the benefits of flattening the curve: a perspective

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