In search of good probability assessors: an experimental comparison of elicitation rules for confidence judgments

DOI10.1007/S11238-015-9509-9MaRDI QIDQ266507zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Guillaume Hollard, Sébastien Massoni, Jean-Christophe Vergnaud

Publication date 13 April 2016

Published in Theory and Decision (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-015-9509-9

zbMATH Keywords

calibrationconfidencebelief elicitationdiscriminationincentivesscoring rules

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of statistics to psychology (62P15) Decision theory (91B06) Experimental studies (91A90)

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Cites work

• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3612275 (Why is no real title available?)
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3288322 (Why is no real title available?)
• A Mechanism for Eliciting Probabilities
• A truth serum for non-Bayesians: correcting proper scoring rules for risk attitudes
• Alternative Approaches to the Theory of Choice in Risk-Taking Situations
• An Experimental Study of Belief Learning Using Elicited Beliefs
• Betting on own knowledge: Experimental test of overconfidence
• Choice-Based Elicitation and Decomposition of Decision Weights for Gains and Losses Under Uncertainty
• Comonotonic proper scoring rules to measure ambiguity and subjective beliefs
• Judgemental Overconfidence, Self-Monitoring, and Trading Performance in an Experimental Financial Market
• Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation
• The binarized scoring rule

Cited in

(9)

• Signaling probabilities in ambiguity: who reacts to vague news?
• Confidence biases and learning among intuitive Bayesians
• Betting on own knowledge: Experimental test of overconfidence
• Belief formation in a signaling game without common prior: an experiment
• Belief elicitation in experiments: Is there a hedging problem?
• An experimental comparison of induced and elicited beliefs
• Bribing the Self
• Optimal group decision: a matter of confidence calibration
• The uniqueness of local proper scoring rules: the logarithmic family

Describes a project that uses

Uses Software

• Psychophysics Toolbox

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