Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice

DOI10.1073/PNAS.0806887106zbMATH Open1355.86002arXiv0812.4777OpenAlexW2129069316WikidataQ24646736 ScholiaQ24646736MaRDI QIDQ2962166FDOQ2962166

Authors: Ian Eisenman, J. S. Wettlaufer 

Publication date: 16 February 2017

Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, a number of studies have discussed the possibility of a critical threshold (or "tipping point") beyond which the ice-albedo feedback causes the ice cover to melt away in an irreversible process. The focus has typically been centered on the annual minimum (September) ice cover, which is often seen as particularly susceptible to destabilization by the ice-albedo feedback. Here we examine the central physical processes associated with the transition from ice-covered to ice-free Arctic Ocean conditions. We show that while the ice-albedo feedback promotes the existence of multiple ice cover states, the stabilizing thermodynamic effects of sea ice mitigate this when the Arctic Ocean is ice-covered during a sufficiently large fraction of the year. These results suggest that critical threshold behavior is unlikely during the approach from current perennial sea ice conditions to seasonally ice-free conditions. In a further warmed climate, however, we find that a critical threshold associated with the sudden loss of the remaining wintertime-only sea ice cover may be likely.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/0812.4777

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Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Hydrology, hydrography, oceanography (86A05) Glaciology (86A40)

Cites Work

• Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system

Cited In (25)

• Solution of the Fokker-Planck equation with a logarithmic potential and mixed eigenvalue spectrum
• Stochastic resonance in stochastic PDEs
• The tipping times in an arctic sea ice system under influence of extreme events
• Analysis of an arctic sea ice loss model in the limit of a discontinuous albedo
• Rigorous analysis and dynamics of Hibler's sea ice model
• Statistical mechanics and the climatology of the arctic sea ice thickness distribution
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• Canard explosion and relaxation oscillation in planar, piecewise-smooth, continuous systems
• When will Arctic sea ice disappear? Projections of area, extent, thickness, and volume
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• Guess-work and reasonings on centennial evolution of surface air temperature in Russia. V: Stability margin towards emergency
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• KCC analysis of a one-dimensional system during catastrophic shift of the Hill function: Douglas tensor in the nonequilibrium region
• Dynamic tipping and cyclic folds, in a one-dimensional non-smooth dynamical system linked to climate models
• Tipping in a low-dimensional model of a tropical cyclone
• Most probable transition paths in piecewise-smooth stochastic differential equations
• Non-smooth homoclinic bifurcation in a conceptual climate model
• A practice-oriented bifurcation analysis for pulse energy converters. V: A view towards the future
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• Beyond the Bristol book: advances and perspectives in non-smooth dynamics and applications
• Noise-induced tipping under periodic forcing: Preferred tipping phase in a non-adiabatic forcing regime
• Tipping points near a delayed saddle node bifurcation with periodic forcing

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