Tipping points near a delayed saddle node bifurcation with periodic forcing
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Publication:3456572
Bifurcation theory for ordinary differential equations (34C23) Nonautonomous smooth dynamical systems (37C60) Asymptotic expansions of solutions to ordinary differential equations (34E05) Perturbations, asymptotics of solutions to ordinary differential equations (34E10) Multiple scale methods for ordinary differential equations (34E13)
Abstract: We consider the effect on tipping from an additive periodic forcing in a canonical model with a saddle node bifurcation and a slowly varying bifurcation parameter. Here tipping refers to the dramatic change in dynamical behavior characterized by a rapid transition away from a previously attracting state. In the absence of the periodic forcing, it is well-known that a slowly varying bifurcation parameter produces a delay in this transition, beyond the bifurcation point for the static case. Using a multiple scales analysis, we consider the effect of amplitude and frequency of the periodic forcing relative to the drifting rate of the slowly varying bifurcation parameter. We show that a high frequency oscillation drives an earlier tipping when the bifurcation parameter varies more slowly, with the advance of the tipping point proportional to the square of the ratio of amplitude to frequency. In the low frequency case the position of the tipping point is affected by the frequency, amplitude and phase of the oscillation. The results are based on an analysis of the local concavity of the trajectory, used for low frequencies both of the same order as the drifting rate of the bifurcation parameter and for low frequencies larger than the drifting rate. The tipping point location is advanced with increased amplitude of the periodic forcing, with critical amplitudes where there are jumps in the location, yielding significant advances in the tipping point. We demonstrate the analysis for two applications with saddle node-type bifurcations.
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Cites work
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Cited in
(11)- Time-dependent saddle-node bifurcation: breaking time and the point of no return in a non-autonomous model of critical transitions
- Controlling systems that drift through a tipping point
- Dynamic tipping in the non-smooth Stommel-box model, with fast oscillatory forcing
- Partial tipping in bistable ecological systems under periodic environmental variability
- Chenciner bubbles and torus break-up in a periodically forced delay differential equation
- Geometric blow-up for folded limit cycle manifolds in three time-scale systems
- Dynamic tipping and cyclic folds, in a one-dimensional non-smooth dynamical system linked to climate models
- How noise and coupling influence leading indicators of population extinction in a spatially extended ecological system
- Perturbation-response dynamics of coupled nonlinear systems
- Effects of periodic forcing on delayed bifurcations.
- Analysis and predictability of tipping points with leading-order nonlinear term
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