The fixation time of a strongly beneficial allele in a structured population

DOI10.1214/16-EJP3355MaRDI QIDQ320238zbMATHFDO

Authors Andreas Greven, Peter Pfaffelhuber, Cornelia Pokalyuk, Anton Wakolbinger

Publication date 6 October 2016

Published in Electronic Journal of Probability (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1402.1769

zbMATH Keywords

branching process approximationancestral selection graphinteracting Wright-Fisher diffusions

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Genetics and epigenetics (92D10) Problems related to evolution (92D15) Applications of branching processes (60J85) Branching processes (Galton-Watson, birth-and-death, etc.) (60J80)

Abstract: For a beneficial allele which enters a large unstructured population and eventually goes to fixation, it is known that the time to fixation is approximately $2log(alpha)/alpha$ for a large selection coefficient $alpha$. For a population that is distributed over finitely many colonies, with migration between these colonies, we detect various regimes of the migration rate $mu$ for which the fixation times have different asymptotics as $alphaoinfty$. If $mu$ is of order $alpha$, the allele fixes (as in the spatially unstructured case) in time $sim2log(alpha)/alpha$. If $mu$ is of order $alph{a}^{g}amma,0leqgammaleq1$, the fixation time is $sim(2+(1-gamma)Delta)log(alpha)/alpha$, where $Delta$ is the number of migration steps that are needed to reach all other colonies starting from the colony where the beneficial allele appeared. If $mu=1/log(alpha)$, the fixation time is $sim(2+S)log(alpha)/alpha$, where $S$ is a random time in a simple epidemic model. The main idea for our analysis is to combine a new moment dual for the process conditioned to fixation with the time reversal in equilibrium of a spatial version of Neuhauser and Krone's ancestral selection graph.

Recommendations

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Cited in

(8)

• The fixation probability and time for a doubly beneficial mutant
• The fixation probability of a beneficial mutation in a geographically structured population
• Evolution of highly fecund haploid populations
• The ancestral selection graph under strong directional selection
• Combinatorics of ancestral lines for a Wright-Fisher diffusion with selection in a Lévy environment
• Allele fixation in a dynamic metapopulation: founder effects vs refuge effects
• Asymptotic sampling distributions made easy: loose linkage in the ancestral recombination graph
• Extinction and fixation times with dominance and inbreeding

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