Combinatorics of ancestral lines for a Wright-Fisher diffusion with selection in a Lévy environment

DOI10.1214/23-AAP1936arXiv2103.12301MaRDI QIDQ6138926FDOQ6138926

Authors: Grégoire Véchambre 

Publication date: 16 January 2024

Published in: The Annals of Applied Probability (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Wright-Fisher diffusions describe the evolution of the type composition of an infinite haploid population with two types (say type $0$ and type $1$) subject to neutral reproductions, and possibly selection and mutations. In the present paper we study a Wright-Fisher diffusion in a L'evy environment that gives a selective advantage to sometimes one type, sometimes the other. Classical methods using the Ancestral Selection Graph (ASG) fail in the study of this model because of the complexity, resulting from the two-sided selection, of the structure of the information contained in the ASG. We propose a new method that consists in encoding the relevant combinatorics of the ASG into a function. We show that the expectations of the coefficients of this function form a (non-stochastic) semigroup and deduce that they satisfy a linear system of differential equations. As a result we obtain a series representation for the fixation probability $h(x)$ (where $x$ is the initial proportion of individuals of type $0$ in the population) as an infinite sum of polynomials whose coefficients satisfy explicit linear relations. Our approach then allows to derive Taylor expansions at every order for $h(x)$ near $x=0$ and to obtain an explicit recursion formula for the coefficients.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.12301

zbMATH Keywords

dualityrandom environmentWright-Fisher diffusionMoran modelancestral selection graph

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Problems related to evolution (92D15) Continuous-time Markov processes on general state spaces (60J25) Continuous-time Markov processes on discrete state spaces (60J27) Interacting particle systems in time-dependent statistical mechanics (82C22)

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