General selection models: Bernstein duality and minimal ancestral structures

DOI10.1214/21-AAP1683MaRDI QIDQ2170352zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Fernando Cordero, Sebastian Hummel, Emmanuel Schertzer

Publication date 5 September 2022

Published in The Annals of Applied Probability (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1903.06731

zbMATH Keywords

dualityfrequency-dependent selectionancestral selection graphabsorption probabilitycoming down from infinity\(\Lambda\)-Wright-Fisher processbranching-coalescing system

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Problems related to evolution (92D15) Interacting random processes; statistical mechanics type models; percolation theory (60K35) Continuous-time Markov processes on general state spaces (60J25) Continuous-time Markov processes on discrete state spaces (60J27) Stochastic processes (60G99)

Abstract: $Lambda$-Wright--Fisher processes provide a robust framework to describe the type-frequency evolution of an infinite neutral population. We add a polynomial drift to the corresponding stochastic differential equation to incorporate frequency-dependent selection. A decomposition of the drift allows us to approximate the solution of the stochastic differential equation by a sequence of Moran models. The genealogical structure underlying the Moran model leads in the large population limit to a generalisation of the ancestral selection graph of Krone and Neuhauser. Building on this object, we construct a continuous-time Markov chain and relate it to the forward process via a new form of duality, which we call Bernstein duality. We adapt classical methods based on the moment duality to determine the time to absorption and criteria for the accessibility of the boundaries; this extends a recent result by Gonz'alez Casanova and Span`o. An intriguing feature of the construction is that the same forward process is compatible with multiple backward models. In this context we introduce suitable notions for minimality among the ancestral processes and characterise the corresponding parameter sets. In this way we recover classic ancestral structures as minimal ones.

Recommendations

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Cited in

(7)

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