Quasi-equilibria and click times for a variant of Muller's ratchet

DOI10.1214/23-EJP1055MaRDI QIDQ6136826zbMATH OpenFDO

Authors Adrián González Casanova, Charline Smadi, Anton Wakolbinger

Publication date 17 January 2024

Published in Electronic Journal of Probability (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.13109

zbMATH Keywords

dualityfirst passage percolationquasi-equilibriumancestral selection graphMuller's ratchettournament selectionclick rateHarris graphical representation

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Problems related to evolution (92D15) Interacting random processes; statistical mechanics type models; percolation theory (60K35)

Abstract: Consider a population of $N$ individuals, each of them carrying a type in $mathbb{N}_0$. The population evolves according to a Moran dynamics with selection and mutation, where an individual of type $k$ has the same selective advantage over all individuals with type $k^{\prime }>k$, and type $k$ mutates to type $k+1$ at a constant rate. This model is thus a variation of the classical Muller's ratchet: there the selective advantage is proportional to $k^{\prime }-k$. For a regime of selection strength and mutation rates which is between the regimes of weak and strong selection/mutation, we obtain the asymptotic rate of the {em click times} of the ratchet (i.e. the times at which the hitherto minimal (`best') type in the population is lost), and reveal the quasi-stationary type frequency profile between clicks. The large population limit of this profile is characterized as the normalized attractor of a ``dual hierarchical multitype logistic system, and also via the distribution of the final minimal displacement in a branching random walk with one-sided steps. An important role in the proofs is played by a graphical representation of the model, both forward and backward in time, and a central tool is the ancestral selection graph decorated by mutations.

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