Heterogeneous population dynamics and scaling laws near epidemic outbreaks

DOI10.3934/MBE.2016032zbMATH Open1358.34059arXiv1411.7323OpenAlexW3106498082WikidataQ40489010 ScholiaQ40489010MaRDI QIDQ327588FDOQ327588

Authors: Andreas Widder, Christian Kuehn 

Publication date: 19 October 2016

Published in: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: In this paper, we focus on the influence of heterogeneity and stochasticity of the population on the dynamical structure of a basic susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model. First we prove that, upon a suitable mathematical reformulation of the basic reproduction number, the homogeneous system and the heterogeneous system exhibit a completely analogous global behaviour. Then we consider noise terms to incorporate the fluctuation effects and the random import of the disease into the population and analyse the influence of heterogeneity on warning signs for critical transitions (or tipping points). This theory shows that one may be able to anticipate whether a bifurcation point is close before it happens. We use numerical simulations of a stochastic fast-slow heterogeneous population SIS model and show various aspects of heterogeneity have crucial influences on the scaling laws that are used as early-warning signs for the homogeneous system. Thus, although the basic structural qualitative dynamical properties are the same for both systems, the quantitative features for epidemic prediction are expected to change and care has to be taken to interpret potential warning signs for disease outbreaks correctly.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1411.7323

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zbMATH Keywords

heterogeneitybasic reproductive numbercritical transitiontranscritical bifurcationstochastic perturbation\(SIS\) modeltipping point

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Qualitative investigation and simulation of ordinary differential equation models (34C60) Dynamical systems in biology (37N25) Bifurcation theory for ordinary differential equations (34C23) Global stability of solutions to ordinary differential equations (34D23) Ordinary differential equations and systems with randomness (34F05)

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Cited In (11)

• A stochastic differential equation SIS model on network under Markovian switching
• Epidemics on networks with heterogeneous population and stochastic infection rates
• Balancing quarantine and self-distancing measures in adaptive epidemic networks
• Hierarchy of temporal responses of multivariate self-excited epidemic processes
• The effect of an additive noise on some slow-fast equation near a transcritical point
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• Rate-Induced Tipping Phenomena in Compartment Models of Epidemics
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• Statistical mechanical model for growth and spread of contagions under gauged population confinement
• On the existence and uniqueness of an inverse problem in epidemiology
• How population heterogeneity in susceptibility and infectivity influences epidemic dynamics

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