The large graph limit of a stochastic epidemic model on a dynamic multilayer network

DOI10.1080/17513758.2018.1515993zbMATH Open1447.92433arXiv1605.02809OpenAlexW2963584699WikidataQ64360759 ScholiaQ64360759MaRDI QIDQ3300960FDOQ3300960

Authors: Karly Jacobsen, Mark G. Burch, Joseph H. Tien, Grzegorz A. Rempala 

Publication date: 31 July 2020

Published in: Journal of Biological Dynamics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We consider an SIR-type (Susceptible $o$ Infected $o$ Recovered) stochastic epidemic process with multiple modes of transmission on a contact network. The network is given by a random graph following a multilayer configuration model where edges in different layers correspond to potentially infectious contacts of different types. We assume that the graph structure evolves in response to the epidemic via activation or deactivation of edges. We derive a large graph limit theorem that gives a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) describing the evolution of quantities of interest, such as the proportions of infected and susceptible vertices, as the number of nodes tends to infinity. Analysis of the limiting system elucidates how the coupling of edge activation and deactivation to infection status affects disease dynamics, as illustrated by a two-layer network example with edge types corresponding to community and healthcare contacts. Our theorem extends some earlier results deriving the deterministic limit of stochastic SIR processes on static, single-layer configuration model graphs. We also describe precisely the conditions for equivalence between our limiting ODEs and the systems obtained via pair approximation, which are widely used in the epidemiological and ecological literature to approximate disease dynamics on networks. Potential applications include modeling Ebola dynamics in West Africa, which was the motivation for this study.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1605.02809

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zbMATH Keywords

law of large numbersmultilayer networkconfiguration modelEbola epidemicmultiple modes of transmissionstochastic SIR process

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Point processes (e.g., Poisson, Cox, Hawkes processes) (60G55)

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Cited In (12)

• Epidemics on networks with preventive rewiring
• Projecting COVID-19 cases and hospital burden in Ohio
• A stochastic SIR network epidemic model with preventive dropping of edges
• Equivalence of mass action and Poisson network SIR epidemic models
• Local-density dependent Markov processes on graphons with epidemiological applications
• How to \textit{correctly} fit an SIR model to data from an SEIR model?
• Large graph limit for an SIR process in random network with heterogeneous connectivity
• An edge-based model of SEIR epidemics on static random networks
• A functional central limit theorem for SI processes on configuration model graphs
• The effect of avoiding known infected neighbors on the persistence of a recurring infection process
• Necessary and sufficient conditions for exact closures of epidemic equations on configuration model networks
• Hypergraphon mean field games

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