Abstract: Many models of epidemic spread have a common qualitative structure. The numbers of infected individuals during the initial stages of an epidemic can be well approximated by a branching process, after which the proportion of individuals that are susceptible follows a more or less deterministic course. In this paper, we show that both of these features are consequences of assuming a locally branching structure in the models, and that the deterministic course can itself be determined from the distribution of the limiting random variable associated with the backward, susceptibility branching process. Examples considered include a stochastic version of the Kermack & McKendrick model, the Reed-Frost model, and the Volz configuration model.
Recommendations
Cited in
(49)- An epidemic model with infector and exposure dependent severity
- Finite dimensional state representation of linear and nonlinear delay systems
- The relationships between message passing, pairwise, Kermack-McKendrick and stochastic SIR epidemic models
- A stochastic SIR network epidemic model with preventive dropping of edges
- Invasion of cooperative parasites in moderately structured host populations
- Not all interventions are equal for the height of the second peak
- Epidemic spreading and equilibrium social distancing in heterogeneous networks
- Central limit theorems for SIR epidemics and percolation on configuration model random graphs
- The duration of a supercritical \(\mathit{SIR}\) epidemic on a configuration model
- \(SI\) infection on a dynamic partnership network: characterization of \(R_0\)
- Heterogeneous network epidemics: real-time growth, variance and extinction of infection
- SIR epidemics and vaccination on random graphs with clustering
- Approximating the Reed-Frost epidemic process
- Population dynamics and statistical physics in synergy. Abstracts from the workshop held March 6--12, 2022
- First passage percolation on the Newman-Watts small world model
- From size to age and type structure dependent branching: a first step to sexual reproduction in general population processes
- The large graph limit of a stochastic epidemic model on a dynamic multilayer network
- Network-based analysis of a small Ebola outbreak
- Mean field at distance one
- Pairwise approximation for SIR-type network epidemics with non-Markovian recovery
- Sensitivity analysis of a branching process evolving on a network with application in epidemiology
- A functional central limit theorem for SI processes on configuration model graphs
- A semiparametric Bayesian approach to epidemics, with application to the spread of the coronavirus MERS in South Korea in 2015
- Dangerous connections: on binding site models of infectious disease dynamics
- Chain-referral sampling on stochastic block models
- Near-critical SIR epidemic on a random graph with given degrees
- Who is the infector? General multi-type epidemics and real-time susceptibility processes
- Couplings for locally branching epidemic processes
- The front of the epidemic spread and first passage percolation
- Law of large numbers for the SIR epidemic on a random graph with given degrees
- First passage percolation on inhomogeneous random graphs
- The impact of household structure on disease-induced herd immunity
- Epidemics on networks with preventive rewiring
- Universal Approximators: New Approach for the Curve Fit of the COVID-19 Infected Population
- Necessary and sufficient conditions for exact closures of epidemic equations on configuration model networks
- General epidemiological models: law of large numbers and contact tracing
- SIR epidemics driven by Feller processes
- A note on the Markovian SIR epidemic on a random graph with given degrees
- Universality of SIS epidemics starting from small initial conditions
- Branching processes and homogenization for epidemics on spatial random graphs
- The epidemiological footprint of contact structures in models with two levels of mixing
- Individual-based SIS models on (not so) dense large random networks
- Sharp approximation and hitting times for stochastic invasion processes
- Optimal vaccination policy to prevent endemicity: a stochastic model
- A queueing system with an SIR-type infection
- Modelling the stochastic importation dynamics and establishment of novel pathogenic strains using a general branching processes framework
- SIR dynamics with vaccination in a large configuration model
- Real-time growth rate for general stochastic SIR epidemics on unclustered networks
- Simple approximations for epidemics with exponential and fixed infectious periods
This page was built for publication: Approximating the epidemic curve
Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q388928)
