Approximating the epidemic curve
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Publication:388928
DOI10.1214/EJP.V18-2557zbMATH Open1301.92072arXiv1301.3288WikidataQ57747887 ScholiaQ57747887MaRDI QIDQ388928FDOQ388928
Authors: A. D. Barbour, Gesine Reinert 
Publication date: 17 January 2014
Published in: Electronic Journal of Probability (Search for Journal in Brave)
Abstract: Many models of epidemic spread have a common qualitative structure. The numbers of infected individuals during the initial stages of an epidemic can be well approximated by a branching process, after which the proportion of individuals that are susceptible follows a more or less deterministic course. In this paper, we show that both of these features are consequences of assuming a locally branching structure in the models, and that the deterministic course can itself be determined from the distribution of the limiting random variable associated with the backward, susceptibility branching process. Examples considered include a stochastic version of the Kermack & McKendrick model, the Reed-Frost model, and the Volz configuration model.
Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1301.3288
Recommendations
Epidemiology (92D30) Applications of branching processes (60J85) Interacting random processes; statistical mechanics type models; percolation theory (60K35)
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