Near-critical SIR epidemic on a random graph with given degrees

DOI10.1007/S00285-016-1043-ZzbMATH Open1358.05259arXiv1501.05798OpenAlexW1784134287WikidataQ40594168 ScholiaQ40594168MaRDI QIDQ515835FDOQ515835

Authors: Svante Janson, Peter Windridge, Thomas House, Malwina Luczak 

Publication date: 17 March 2017

Published in: Journal of Mathematical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Emergence of new diseases and elimination of existing diseases is a key public health issue. In mathematical models of epidemics, such phenomena involve the process of infections and recoveries passing through a critical threshold where the basic reproductive ratio is 1. In this paper, we study near-critical behaviour in the context of a susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemic on a random (multi)graph on $n$ vertices with a given degree sequence. We concentrate on the regime just above the threshold for the emergence of a large epidemic, where the basic reproductive ratio is $1+omega(n)n^{-1/3}$, with $omega(n)$ tending to infinity slowly as the population size, $n$, tends to infinity. We determine the probability that a large epidemic occurs, and the size of a large epidemic. Our results require basic regularity conditions on the degree sequences, and the assumption that the third moment of the degree of a random susceptible vertex stays uniformly bounded as $noinfty$. As a corollary, we determine the probability and size of a large near-critical epidemic on a standard binomial random graph in the `sparse' regime, where the average degree is constant. As a further consequence of our method, we obtain an improved result on the size of the giant component in a random graph with given degrees just above the critical window, proving a conjecture by Janson and Luczak.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1501.05798

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zbMATH Keywords

SIR epidemicconfiguration modelcritical windowrandom graph with given degrees

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of continuous-time Markov processes on discrete state spaces (60J28) Epidemiology (92D30) Applications of graph theory (05C90) Random graphs (graph-theoretic aspects) (05C80) Limit theorems in probability theory (60F99)

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Cited In (10)

• Component structure of the configuration model: barely supercritical case
• SIR epidemics on random graphs with a fixed degree sequence
• SIS epidemic propagation on hypergraphs
• Law of large numbers for the SIR epidemic on a random graph with given degrees
• Asymptotic of the critical value of the large-dimensional SIR epidemic on clusters
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• The extinction time of a subcritical branching process related to the SIR epidemic on a random graph
• A note on the Markovian SIR epidemic on a random graph with given degrees

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