Near-critical SIR epidemic on a random graph with given degrees

DOI10.1007/S00285-016-1043-ZMaRDI QIDQ515835zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Svante Janson, Peter Windridge, Thomas House, Malwina Luczak

Publication date 17 March 2017

Published in Journal of Mathematical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1501.05798

zbMATH Keywords

SIR epidemicconfiguration modelcritical windowrandom graph with given degrees

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of continuous-time Markov processes on discrete state spaces (60J28) Epidemiology (92D30) Applications of graph theory (05C90) Random graphs (graph-theoretic aspects) (05C80) Limit theorems in probability theory (60F99)

Abstract: Emergence of new diseases and elimination of existing diseases is a key public health issue. In mathematical models of epidemics, such phenomena involve the process of infections and recoveries passing through a critical threshold where the basic reproductive ratio is 1. In this paper, we study near-critical behaviour in the context of a susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemic on a random (multi)graph on $n$ vertices with a given degree sequence. We concentrate on the regime just above the threshold for the emergence of a large epidemic, where the basic reproductive ratio is $1+omega(n)n^{-1/3}$, with $omega(n)$ tending to infinity slowly as the population size, $n$, tends to infinity. We determine the probability that a large epidemic occurs, and the size of a large epidemic. Our results require basic regularity conditions on the degree sequences, and the assumption that the third moment of the degree of a random susceptible vertex stays uniformly bounded as $noinfty$. As a corollary, we determine the probability and size of a large near-critical epidemic on a standard binomial random graph in the `sparse' regime, where the average degree is constant. As a further consequence of our method, we obtain an improved result on the size of the giant component in a random graph with given degrees just above the critical window, proving a conjecture by Janson and Luczak.

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Cited in

(10)

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