Some Heuristics about Elliptic Curves

DOI10.1080/10586458.2008.10129019MaRDI QIDQ3546256zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Mark Watkins

Publication date 18 December 2008

Published in Experimental Mathematics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/math/0608766, https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.em/1227031901, https://surface.syr.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1104&context=mat

zbMATH Keywords

elliptic curvesasymptotic countvanishing \(L\)-function

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Zeta functions and related questions in algebraic geometry (e.g., Birch-Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture) (14G10) Elliptic curves (14H52)

Abstract: We give some heuristics for counting elliptic curves with certain properties. In particular, we re-derive the Brumer-McGuinness heuristic for the number of curves with positive/negative discriminant up to $X$, which is an application of lattice-point counting. We then introduce heuristics (with refinements from random matrix theory) that allow us to predict how often we expect an elliptic curve $E$ with even parity to have $L(E,1)=0$. We find that we expect there to be about $c_1{X}^{19/24}(logX{)}^{3/8}$ curves with $|Delta|<X$ with even parity and positive (analytic) rank; since Brumer and McGuinness predict $c{X}^{5/6}$ total curves, this implies that asymptotically almost all even parity curves have rank 0. We then derive similar estimates for ordering by conductor, and conclude by giving various data regarding our heuristics and related questions.

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Cited in

(26)

• Obituary for Wolfgang Schwarz
• Counting elliptic curves of bounded Faltings height
• Computing newforms using supersingular isogeny graphs
• Orders of Tate-Shafarevich groups for the Neumann-Setzer type elliptic curves
• Statistics for Iwasawa invariants of elliptic curves
• A heuristic for boundedness of ranks of elliptic curves
• On the distribution of analytic ranks of elliptic curves
• Nonvanishing of twists of \(L\)-functions attached to Hilbert modular forms
• Databases of elliptic curves ordered by height and distributions of Selmer groups and ranks
• Large families of elliptic curves ordered by conductor
• On Bhargava's heuristics for \(\mathbf{GL}_2(\mathbb{F}_p)\)-number fields and the number of elliptic curves of bounded conductor
• The distribution of central values of elliptic curve L-functions
• Heuristics on pairing-friendly elliptic curves
• Newforms with rational coefficients
• The number of solutions to Mordell's equation in constrained ranges
• On elliptic curves and random matrix theory
• On the Northcott property for special values of \(L\)-functions
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 4148283 (Why is no real title available?)
• An on-average Maeda-type conjecture in the level aspect
• Rank bias for elliptic curves \(\bmod\,p\)
• Behaviour of the order of Tate-Shafarevich groups for the quadratic twists of \(X_0(49)\)
• How many rational points does a random curve have?
• A probabilistic model for the distribution of ranks of elliptic curves over \(\mathbb{Q}\)
• Remarks on the size of the Tamagawa product
• Integral points on cubic twists of Mordell curves
• Counting problems: class groups, primes, and number fields

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