Some Heuristics about Elliptic Curves

DOI10.1080/10586458.2008.10129019zbMATH Open1151.14025arXivmath/0608766OpenAlexW2064836645MaRDI QIDQ3546256FDOQ3546256

Authors: Mark Watkins 

Publication date: 18 December 2008

Published in: Experimental Mathematics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We give some heuristics for counting elliptic curves with certain properties. In particular, we re-derive the Brumer-McGuinness heuristic for the number of curves with positive/negative discriminant up to $X$, which is an application of lattice-point counting. We then introduce heuristics (with refinements from random matrix theory) that allow us to predict how often we expect an elliptic curve $E$ with even parity to have $L(E,1)=0$. We find that we expect there to be about $c_1{X}^{19/24}(logX{)}^{3/8}$ curves with $|Delta|<X$ with even parity and positive (analytic) rank; since Brumer and McGuinness predict $c{X}^{5/6}$ total curves, this implies that asymptotically almost all even parity curves have rank 0. We then derive similar estimates for ordering by conductor, and conclude by giving various data regarding our heuristics and related questions.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/math/0608766

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zbMATH Keywords

elliptic curvesasymptotic countvanishing \(L\)-function

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Zeta functions and related questions in algebraic geometry (e.g., Birch-Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture) (14G10) Elliptic curves (14H52)

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