The gambler's and hot-hand fallacies: theory and applications

DOI10.1111/J.1467-937X.2009.00582.XMaRDI QIDQ3563642zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Matthew Rabin, Dimitri Vayanos

Publication date 1 June 2010

Published in Review of Economic Studies (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937x.2009.00582.x

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of statistics to actuarial sciences and financial mathematics (62P05) Signaling and communication in game theory (91A28) Financial applications of other theories (91G80) Probabilistic games; gambling (91A60)

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• A fresh look at the ``hot hand paradox
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• The hot hand belief and the Gambler's fallacy in investment decisions under risk
• Dominated choices in a simple game with large stakes
• Hold or roll: reaching the goal in jeopardy race games
• Exchangeability and the law of maturity
• The gambler's fallacy and the hot hand: empirical data from casinos
• Processing consistency in non-Bayesian inference
• Mislearning from censored data: The gambler's fallacy and other correlational mistakes in optimal‐stopping problems
• Gambler's fallacy and imperfect best response in legislative bargaining
• Financial reporting and market efficiency with extrapolative investors
• Dynamic beliefs
• Asymptotic behavior of Bayesian learners with misspecified models
• Learning Temporal Structures of Random Patterns by Generating Functions
• Information and dynamic trading with the Gambler's fallacy

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