Embedding population dynamics models in inference

DOI10.1214/088342306000000673zbMATH Open1246.62225arXiv0708.3796OpenAlexW3106043164MaRDI QIDQ449747FDOQ449747

Len Thomas, John Harwood, Ken B. Newman, Stephen T. Buckland, Carmen Fernández

Publication date: 1 September 2012

Published in: Statistical Science (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Increasing pressures on the environment are generating an ever-increasing need to manage animal and plant populations sustainably, and to protect and rebuild endangered populations. Effective management requires reliable mathematical models, so that the effects of management action can be predicted, and the uncertainty in these predictions quantified. These models must be able to predict the response of populations to anthropogenic change, while handling the major sources of uncertainty. We describe a simple ``building block approach to formulating discrete-time models. We show how to estimate the parameters of such models from time series of data, and how to quantify uncertainty in those estimates and in numbers of individuals of different types in populations, using computer-intensive Bayesian methods. We also discuss advantages and pitfalls of the approach, and give an example using the British grey seal population.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/0708.3796

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zbMATH Keywords

Kalman filterMarkov chain Monte Carloparticle filterstate-space modelssequential importance samplinghidden process modelsmatrix population models

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian inference (62F15) Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH) (62M10) Numerical analysis or methods applied to Markov chains (65C40) Inference from stochastic processes and prediction (62M20) Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics (62P12) Sequential statistical methods (62L99)

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