Higher accuracy for Bayesian and frequentist inference: large sample theory for small sample likelihood

DOI10.1214/07-STS240MaRDI QIDQ449760zbMATHFDO

Authors Augustine Wong, M. Bédard, D. A. S. Fraser

Publication date 1 September 2012

Published in Statistical Science (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/0801.3751

zbMATH Keywords

asymptoticslikelihoodMetropolis-Hastings algorithm\(p\)-valuehigher orderthird orderBayesian posterior s-valuecanonical parameterdefault priormaximum likelihood departureregression example

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Asymptotic properties of parametric estimators (62F12) Bayesian inference (62F15) Numerical analysis or methods applied to Markov chains (65C40) Probabilistic models, generic numerical methods in probability and statistics (65C20)

Abstract: Recent likelihood theory produces $p$-values that have remarkable accuracy and wide applicability. The calculations use familiar tools such as maximum likelihood values (MLEs), observed information and parameter rescaling. The usual evaluation of such $p$-values is by simulations, and such simulations do verify that the global distribution of the $p$-values is uniform(0, 1), to high accuracy in repeated sampling. The derivation of the $p$-values, however, asserts a stronger statement, that they have a uniform(0, 1) distribution conditionally, given identified precision information provided by the data. We take a simple regression example that involves exact precision information and use large sample techniques to extract highly accurate information as to the statistical position of the data point with respect to the parameter: specifically, we examine various $p$-values and Bayesian posterior survivor $s$-values for validity. With observed data we numerically evaluate the various $p$-values and $s$-values, and we also record the related general formulas. We then assess the numerical values for accuracy using Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) methods. We also propose some third-order likelihood-based procedures for obtaining means and variances of Bayesian posterior distributions, again followed by McMC assessment. Finally we propose some adaptive McMC methods to improve the simulation acceptance rates. All these methods are based on asymptotic analysis that derives from the effect of additional data. And the methods use simple calculations based on familiar maximizing values and related informations. The example illustrates the general formulas and the ease of calculations, while the McMC assessments demonstrate the numerical validity of the $p$-values as percentage position of a data point. The example, however, is very simple and transparent, and thus gives little indication that in a wide generality of models the formulas do accurately separate information for almost any parameter of interest, and then do give accurate $p$-value determinations from that information. As illustration an enigmatic problem in the literature is discussed and simulations are recorded; various examples in the literature are cited.

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Cited in

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• On default priors and approximate location models
• Is Bayes posterior just quick and dirty confidence?
• Objective Bayes models for compatibility assessment and bias estimation
• Three enigmatic examples and inference from likelihood
• Higher order accurate procedures to compare two normal populations
• Confidence regions for comparison of two normal samples
• Improvement over bayes prediction in small samples in the presence of model uncertainty
• Accurate parametric inference for small samples

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