Rates of contraction for posterior distributions in L^r-metrics, 1 r

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Publication:449972




Abstract: The frequentist behavior of nonparametric Bayes estimates, more specifically, rates of contraction of the posterior distributions to shrinking Lr-norm neighborhoods, 1lerleinfty, of the unknown parameter, are studied. A theorem for nonparametric density estimation is proved under general approximation-theoretic assumptions on the prior. The result is applied to a variety of common examples, including Gaussian process, wavelet series, normal mixture and histogram priors. The rates of contraction are minimax-optimal for 1lerle2, but deteriorate as r increases beyond 2. In the case of Gaussian nonparametric regression a Gaussian prior is devised for which the posterior contracts at the optimal rate in all Lr-norms, 1lerleinfty.



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