Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing

From MaRDI portal
Publication:4720635


DOI10.2307/1913236zbMath0613.62140WikidataQ55879649 ScholiaQ55879649MaRDI QIDQ4720635

Clive W. J. Granger, Robert F. Engle

Publication date: 1987

Published in: Econometrica (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL: https://semanticscholar.org/paper/9885b611792aedb706ba905e610b4a0a409d5984


62P20: Applications of statistics to economics

62M10: Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH)

91B84: Economic time series analysis


Related Items

UNIT ROOTS IN PERIODIC AUTOREGRESSIONS, Simulating competing cointegration tests in a bivariate system, A comparison of some common methods for detecting Granger noncausality, The Size and Power of Bootstrap and Bartlett-Corrected Tests of Hypotheses on the Cointegrating Vectors, Bayesian Inference in CointegratedI(2) Systems: A Generalization of the Triangular Model, THE LINEAR DEPENDENCE AND FEEDBACK SPECTRA BETWEEN STOCK MARKET AND ECONOMY, ESTIMATION OF THE LONG-RUN AVERAGE RELATIONSHIP IN NONSTATIONARY PANEL TIME SERIES, THE DYNAMIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN STOCK PRICES AND EXCHANGE RATES: EVIDENCE FOR BRAZIL, Consistent testing for non‐correlation of two cointegrated ARMA time series, Strong dependence in the nominal exchange rates of the Polish zloty, Residuals‐based tests for the null of no‐cointegration: an Analytical comparison, Efficient estimation and inference in cointegrating regressions with structural change, Modeling assets and liabilities of a finnish pension insurance company: a VEqC approach, TESTING FOR COINTEGRATION IN NONLINEAR SMOOTH TRANSITION ERROR CORRECTION MODELS, Directional Congestion and Regime Switching in a Long Memory Model for Electricity Prices, The Behavior of Short-Term Interest Rates: International Evidence of Non-Linear Adjustment, A Parametric approach to the Estimation of Cointegration Vectors in Panel Data, AN ANALYSIS OF ASIAN MARKET INTEGRATION PRE- AND POST-CRISIS, ON THE ASYMPTOTIC DISTRIBUTION OF IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTIONS WITH LONG-RUN RESTRICTIONS, A MONTE CARLO STUDY ON THE SELECTION OF COINTEGRATING RANK USING INFORMATION CRITERIA, Improved estimates and forecasts of error correction models in economics, Durbin-Hausman tests for cointegration, Durbin-Hausman tests for cointegration, Improved estimates and forecasts of error correction models in economics, THE ET INTERVIEW: PROFESSOR DAVID F. HENDRY: Interviewed by Neil R. Ericsson, Nonlinear estimation using estimated cointegrating relations, A new definition for time-dependent price mean reversion in commodity markets, Are currency devaluations effective? A panel unit root test, Increasing convergence among European stock markets?: A recursive common stochastic trends analysis, Are current account deficits sustainable?: Evidence from panel cointegration, Econometric tests of rationality and market efficiency, Semiparametric fractional cointegration analysis, Multivariate cointegration analysis of the Finnish-Japanese stock markets, A systematic framework for analyzing the dynamic effects of permanent and transitory shocks., Specification search in nonlinear time-series models using the genetic algorithm., Estimating theoretically consistent demand systems using cointegration techniques with application to Greek food data, A new approach for estimating and testing the linear quadratic adjustment cost model under rational expectations and I(1) variables, A simple cointegrating rank test without vector autoregression, Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships, Spurious regressions and residual-based tests for cointegration when regressors are cointegrated, Price forecasting with state-space models of nonstationary time series: Case of the Japanese salmon market, Bootstrapping cointegrating regression, Does comovement among exchange rates imply market inefficiency?, A cointegration test of the optimal seigniorage model, Estimation of partially nonstationary vector autoregressive models with seasonal behavior, The foreign exchange market efficiency hypothesis. Revisiting the puzzle, Comparison of Box-Tiao and Johansen canonical estimators of cointegrating vectors in VEC(1) models, Testing for an unstable root in conditional and structural error correction models, Direct cointegration testing in error correction models, The asymptotics of single-equation cointegration regressions with I(1) and I(2) variables, Polynomial cointegration. Estimation and test, Temporal aggregation and the power of tests for a unit root, Estimating cointegration parameters: An application of the double bootstrap, Nonconvexities, labor hoarding, technology shocks, and procyclical productivity. A structural econometric analysis, A numerical Bayesian test for cointegration of AR processes, Systematic sampling, temporal aggregation, seasonal adjustment, and cointegration. Theory and evidence, Testing for the sustainability of the current account deficit in two industrial countries, Empirical evidence on the long-run neutrality hypothesis using low-frequency international data, Testing tariff endogeneity in Japan, Cointegration, causality and export-led growth in Mexico, 1895-1992, Component extraction analysis of multivariate time series, An enlarged definition of cointegration, A common framework for estimating multivariate autoregressive index models, Nonparametric cointegration analysis, A comparison of cointegration tests, An introduction to stochastic unit-root processes, Codependent cycles, Analysis of cointegrated VARMA processes, Bootstrapping cointegrating regressions. (With discussion by D. V. Hinkley), Testing cointegration in infinite order vector autoregressive processes, On the non-existence of a Bartlett correction for unit root tests, Business cycle analysis without much theory: A look at structural VARs, Testing for multicointegration, The demand for money: Total transactions as the scale variable, Can nominal exchange rates be differenced to stationarity?, Exports and economic growth: Evidence from 19th Century Europe, Order flow and the bid-ask spread: an empirical probability model of screen-based trading, On the relationship between aggregate merger activity and the stock market: some further empirical evidence, Nonparametric frequency domain analysis of nonstationary multivariate time series, Estimating fractional cointegration in the presence of polynomial trends, Early surrender and the distribution of policy reserves, Price discovery, causality and forecasting in the freight futures market, Modelling the demand for money in New Zealand., Do UK stock prices deviate from fundamentals?, Modelling the causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP in new Zealand, Australia, India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand., The power of bootstrap based tests for parameters in cointegrating regressions, On bootstrapping regressions with unit root processes, Forecasting regional income inequality in China, Review of guidelines for the use of combined forecasts, Co-integration inference in the value--profit relation and investment models, Inference on one-way effect and evidence in Japanese macroeconomic data, Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous \(I(1)\) variables, Statistical inference in regression with heavy-tailed integrated variables, Calculation of aggregate demand and supply disturbances from a common trends model, The long-run relation between black market and official exchange rates: Evidence from panel cointegration, Asymptotics for partly linear regression with dependent samples and ARCH errors: Consistency with rates, A cointegration analysis of annual tourism demand by Malaysia for Australia, Cointegration analysis of metals futures, The unbiasedness hypothesis in the freight forward market: Evidence from cointegration tests, Estimating long-run relationships in economics. A comparison of different approaches, Long-term time-series forecasting of social interventions for narcotics use and property crime, \(I(0)\) in, integration and cointegration out: Time series properties of endogenous growth models, Testing exact rational expectations in cointegrated vector autoregressive models, A state space model of the economic fundamentals, Cointegration in VAR(1) process. Characterization and testing, Are saving and investment cointegrated? An ARDL bounds testing approach., Asymmetric adjustment from structural booms and slumps., Determination of cointegrating rank in fractional systems., The importance of common cyclical features in VAR analysis: A Monte-Carlo study., Inference on the cointegration rank in fractionally integrated processes., A model of fractional cointegration, and tests for cointegration using the bootstrap., Nonlinear minimization estimators in the presence of cointegrating relations., Special issue: Long memory and nonlinear time series. Selected papers of a conference, Cardiff, UK, July 9--11, 2000, A CUSUM test for cointegration using regression residuals, Higher order approximations for Wald statistics in time series regressions with integrated processes., Semi-nonparametric cointegration testing, Priors, posteriors and Bayes factors for a Bayesian analysis of cointegration, Stochastic cointegration: estimation and inference., Seasonal cointegration and cross-equation restrictions on a forward-looking buffer stock model of money demand., Estimating cointegrated systems using subspace algorithms, Size and power of some cointegration tests under structural breaks and heteroskedastfc noise, Invariant Bayesian inference in regression models that is robust against the Jeffreys-Lindley's paradox, Bayesian analysis of the error correction model, The quantity approach to financial integration: The Feldstein-Horioka criterion revisited, Efficient inference on cointegration parameters in structural error correction models, A simple message for autocorrelation correctors: Don't, On the term structure of interest rates -- empirical results for Germany, Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts, Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks, Interval forecasting in cointegrated systems, Unit root econometrics and economic nonlinearities, Tests for cointegration. A Monte Carlo comparison, Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium, On the determination of integration indices in I(2) systems, Cointegration and the PPP and the UIP hypotheses: An application to the Spanish integration in the EC, Does a \(J\)-curve exist for Korea and Taiwan?, Neural networks in the capital markets: An application to index forecasting, Typologies of linear dynamic systems and models, Seasonal integration and cointegration, An analogue model of phase-averaging procedures, Estimating integrated higher-order continuous time autoregressions with an application to money-income causality, Aggregation over time, error correction models and Granger causality:, Testing for cointegration: Power versus frequency of observation--another view, A note on the critical values for the maximum likelihood (seasonal) cointegration tests, The dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances: Another Look, Misinterpreting the dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances, Unit roots and cointegration in estimating causality between exports and economic growth:, Spurious regressions when stationary regressors are included, Cointegration and the long-run forecast of exchange rates, The balance between size and power in Dickey-Fuller tests with data-dependent rules for the choice of truncation lag, The length of the effect of aggregate advertising on aggregate consumption, Linear aggregation in cointegrated systems, New small sample estimators for cointegration regression: low-pass spectral filter method, Persistence, cointegration, and aggregation. A disaggregated analysis of output fluctuations in the U.S. economy, Limiting power of unit-root tests in time-series regression, A critique of the application of unit root tests, An empirical investigation among real, monetary and financial variables, Joint modeling of cointegration and conditional heteroscedasticity with applications, On the specification and estimation of large scale simultaneous structural macroeconometric models, Unit root testing, Autoregressive distributed lag models and cointegration, Structural vector autoregressive analysis for cointegrated variables, Econometric analysis of high frequency data, A threshold cointegration test with increased power, Recursive solution methods for dynamic linear rational expectations models, Interpreting cointegrated models, Small sample improvements in the threshold cointegration test using residual-based moving block bootstrap, Nonlinear mean reversion in the term structure of interest rates, Option valuation with co-integrated asset prices, Markov-switching stochastic trends and economic fluctuations, Exact maximum likelihood estimation of structured or unit root multivariate time series models, Exact maximum likelihood estimation of partially nonstationary vector ARMA models, Epi-convergent discretizations of multistage stochastic programs via integration quadratures, The role of ``leads in the dynamic OLS estimation of cointegrating regression models, Nonparametric estimation in a nonlinear cointegration type model, Fundamentals and bubbles in asset prices: Evidence from U.S. and Japanese asset prices, Common nonstationary components of asset prices, Multivariate estimates of the permanent components of GNP and stock prices, Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors, Testing for cointegration using principal components methods, Continuous time autoregressive models with common stochastic trends, Error correction models, cointegration and the internal model principle, Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems, On the dynamic shape of aggregated error correction models, On alternative state space representations of time series models, Bayesian reduced rank regression in econometrics, Cointegration tests with conditional heteroskedasticity., Testing cointegrating coefficients in vector autoregressive error correction models, Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models, A non-linear error correction mechanism based on the bilinear model, Temporal aggregation in a periodically integrated autoregressive process, Prediction in dynamic models with time-dependent conditional variances, Impulse response analysis of cointegrated systems, Is there a long-run relation between the trade balance and the real effective exchange rate of LDCs!, Co-integration and trend-stationarity in macroeconomic time series. Evidence from the likelihood function, Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis, Efficient estimation and testing of cointegrating vectors in the presence of deterministic trends, Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK, Small sample properties of tests of linear restrictions on cointegrating vectors and their weights, Estimation of simultaneous equation models with stochastic trend components, Some unresolved issues in the application of control theory to economic policy-making, Forecasting time series with common seasonal patterns (with discussion), Seasonal cointegration. The Japanese consumption function (with discussion), Maximum likelihood inference on cointegration and seasonal cointegration, Heteroskedastic cointegration, A note on forecasting in co-integrated systems, A cointegration approach to estimating preference parameters, Efficiency of the Turkish stock exchange with respect to monetary variables: A cointegration analysis, Testing misspecified cointegrating relationships, On the Granger representation theorem: A counter example?, Real exchange rates under the recent float: Unequivocal evidence of mean reversion, Demand for medical care, consumption, and cointegration, Inflationary expectations and rationality revisited, Convergence of the static estimation toward the long run effects of dynamic panel data models, Cointegrated processes with infinite variance innovations, Low-pass filtered least squares estimators of cointegrating vectors, Analysis of cointegration vectors using the GMM approach, Pitfalls in testing for long run relationships, Tests for cointegration with infinite variance errors, Spurios regression theory with nonstationary fractionally integrated processes, Representations of \(I(2)\) cointegrated systems using the Smith-McMillan form, Model selection in partially nonstationary vector autoregressive processes with reduced rank structure, Tests of cointegrating rank with trend-break, Aggregation of linear dynamic microeconomic models, No-cointegration test based on fractional differencing: Some Monte Carlo results, Test for partial parameter instability in regressions with \(I(1)\) processes, Structural relations, cointegration and identification: Some simple results and their application, Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data, Discrete and continuous time cointegration, Testing the null of stationarity for multiple time series, Testing for \(r\) versus \(r-1\) cointegrating vectors, Residual based tests for cointegration. A Monte Carlo study of size distortions, A novel test of the monetary approach using black market exchange rates and the Johansen-Juselius cointegration method, Dynamic linkages between stock prices, accrual earnings and cash flows: A cointegration analysis, The identification of multivariate linear dynamic errors-in-variables models, Cotrending and the stationarity of the real interest rate, Cointegration tests on MARS, Encompassing univariate models in multivariate time series. A case study, Aggregate consumption functions for India: A cointegration analysis under structural changes, 1919-86, Vector autoregression modelling and forecasting growth of South Korea, Stability conditions for a bivariate arch system which is cointegrated in mean, A flexible parametric density estimator for multimodal distributions of test statistics, RECOGNIZING OVERDIFFERENCED TIME SERIES, Asset prices and the fundamentals: a Q test, The monetary approach to the balance of payments and the IMF model of financial programming, Modelling the lead-lag effect between dual-class shares, COINTEGRATION AND COMMON FACTORS, Nonstationary regression models with a lagged dependent variable, Nonstationary regression models with a lagged dependent variable, Lagrance-multiplier tersts for weak exogeneity: a synthesis, THRESHOLD AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING IN FINANCE: THE PRICE DIFFERENCES OF EQUIVALENT ASSETS1, ESTIMATION AND INFERENCE ON LONG-RUN EQUILIBRIA: A SIMULATION STUDY, A SCORE TEST FOR SEASONAL FRACTIONAL INTEGRATION AND COINTEGRATION, COMPARING TESTS OF AUTOREGRESSIVE VERSUS MOVING AVERAGE ERRORS IN REGRESSION MODELS USING BAHADUR’S ASYMPTOTIC RELATIVE EFFICIENCY, Estimator Choice and Fisher's Paradox: A Monte Carlo Study, On the robustness of cointegration tests when series are fractionally intergrated, A REVIEW OF SYSTEMS COINTEGRATION TESTS, DYNAMIC FACTOR MODELS, NONLINEAR ERROR CORRECTION: THE CASE OF MONEY DEMAND IN THE UNITED KINGDOM (1878–2000), On the robustness of cointegration tests when series are fractionally intergrated, A SIMPLE MODEL FOR THE NONEQUILIBRIUM DYNAMICS AND EVOLUTION OF A FINANCIAL MARKET, The use of the ARDL approach in estimating virtual exchange rates in India, Bayesian inference in the triangular cointegration model using a jeffreys prior, THE RANK OF A SUBMATRIX OF COINTEGRATION, BAYESIAN REFERENCE ANALYSIS OF COINTEGRATION, SPECTRAL MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION OF A SIGNAL-TO-NOISE RATIO LYING IN THE VICINITY OF ZERO, TESTING THE ORDER OF DIFFERENCING IN TIME SERIES REGRESSION, LONG-RUN STRUCTURAL MODELLING, SPURIOUS REGRESSIONS BETWEEN I(d) PROCESSES, Moments of the Limiting Distribution for the Boundary Case in the First Order Autoregressive Process, Testing for ar(1) against ima(1,1) disturbances in the linear regression model, The role of the constant and linear terms in cointegration analysis of nonstationary variables, Cointegration and direct tests of the rational expectations hypothesis, Vector autoregression and causality: a theoretical overview and simulation study, Estimating systems of trending variables, A vector of quarters representation for bivariate time series, On the interactions of unit roots and exogeneity, Dynamic data envelopment analysis, A residual based test for the null hypothesis of cointegration., Currency devaluation, aggregate output, and the long run: An empirical study, Bartlett corrections in cointegration testing, Testing for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with a time trend, Testing for stationarity-ergodicity and for comovements between nonlinear discrete time Markov processes, Long-run and short-run co-movement in UK consumption and income, An algebraic interpretation of cointegration, Optimal hedging and spreading in cointegrated markets, Testing for AR\((p)\) against IMA\((1,q)\) disturbances in the linear regression model, Granger-causality in cointegrated VAR processes. The case of the term structure, Weighted Dickey-Fuller processes for detecting stationarity, Term structure of interest rates and the expectation hypothesis: The Euro area, Testing linearity in a cointegrating STR model for the money demand function: International evidence from G-7 countries, A stochastic programming model for asset liability management of a Finnish pension company, Structural breaks, tourism development, and economic growth: Evidence from Taiwan, Behavior in small samples of some tests of non-nested hypotheses in nonstationary regressions and their bootstrap versions, Who's afraid of reduced-rank parameterizations of multivariate models? Theory and example, Nonstationary dynamic factor analysis, A wavelet filtering based analysis of macroeconomic indicators: the Indian evidence, Testing for cointegration in the presence of mis-specified structural change, Testing for serial correlation of unknown form in cointegrated time series models, Interpreting cointegrating vectors and common stochastic trends, Treasury management model with foreign exchange exposure, Time series forecasting with multiple candidate models: selecting or combining?, Unnamed Item, Booststrapped johansen tests for cointegration relationships: a graphical analysis, Monte Carlo tests of cointegration with structural breaks, INTEGRATION OF GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKETS: AN EMPIRICAL EXPLORATION, THE COINTEGRATION PROPERTIES OF VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION MODELS, Intertemporal consumer behaviour under structural changes in income, State space modeling of multiple time series, UNBALANCED COINTEGRATION, Correlograms for Non-Stationary Autoregressions, BOOSTING-BASED FRAMEWORK FOR PORTFOLIO STRATEGY DISCOVERY AND OPTIMIZATION, Nonlinear Cointegration and Nonlinear Error Correction: Record Counting Cointegration Tests, A RESIDUAL-BASED LM-TYPE TEST AGAINST FRACTIONAL COINTEGRATION, ON THE IDENTIFICATION AND ESTIMATION OF NONSTATIONARY AND COINTEGRATED ARMAX SYSTEMS, Co-integration testing using local-to-unity detrending: the impact of structural change under the null, PROPERTIES OF PREDICTORS FOR MULTIVARIATE AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS WITH ESTIMATED PARAMETERS, ON THE PROBABILITY OF ESTIMATING A DETERMINISTIC COMPONENT IN THE LOCAL LEVEL MODEL, Influential observations in cointegrated VAR models: Danish money demand 1973–2003, Stationary Subspace Analysis, New Improved Tests for Cointegration with Structural Breaks, A weighted symmetric cointegration test, RECONSIDERING THE INVESTMENT–PROFIT NEXUS IN FINANCE‐LED ECONOMIES: AN ARDL‐BASED APPROACH, Enhancing hedging performance with the spanning polynomial projection, The most-cited statistical papers, Test for cointegration based on two-stage least squares, Do Flow Rates Respond Asymmetrically to Water Level? Evidence from the Edwards Aquifer, Lag‐augmented two‐ and three‐stage least squares estimators for integrated structural dynamic models, Testing for cointegration at any frequency using spectral methods, The role of the drift in I(2) systems, A comparison of indicators for evaluating x-11-arima seasonal adjustment, Testing the Cointegrating Rank with Uncorrelated but Dependent Errors, Representation of Cointegrated Autoregressive Processes with Application to Fractional Processes, Implications of temporal aggregation on the relation between two time series, Comparisons of tests for multivariate cointegration, Unnamed Item, Unnamed Item, PROFITS, INVESTMENT AND BUSINESS FLUCTUATIONS