Incorporating geostrophic wind information for improved space-time short-term wind speed forecasting

DOI10.1214/14-AOAS756zbMATH Open1304.62142arXiv1412.1915OpenAlexW1966740280MaRDI QIDQ484052FDOQ484052

Authors: Xinxin Zhu, Kenneth P. Bowman, Marc G. Genton 

Publication date: 17 December 2014

Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Accurate short-term wind speed forecasting is needed for the rapid development and efficient operation of wind energy resources. This is, however, a very challenging problem. Although on the large scale, the wind speed is related to atmospheric pressure, temperature, and other meteorological variables, no improvement in forecasting accuracy was found by incorporating air pressure and temperature directly into an advanced space-time statistical forecasting model, the trigonometric direction diurnal (TDD) model. This paper proposes to incorporate the geostrophic wind as a new predictor in the TDD model. The geostrophic wind captures the physical relationship between wind and pressure through the observed approximate balance between the pressure gradient force and the Coriolis acceleration due to the Earth's rotation. Based on our numerical experiments with data from West Texas, our new method produces more accurate forecasts than does the TDD model using air pressure and temperature for 1- to 6-hour-ahead forecasts based on three different evaluation criteria. Furthermore, forecasting errors can be further reduced by using moving average hourly wind speeds to fit the diurnal pattern. For example, our new method obtains between 13.9% and 22.4% overall mean absolute error reduction relative to persistence in 2-hour-ahead forecasts, and between 5.3% and 8.2% reduction relative to the best previous space-time methods in this setting.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1412.1915

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zbMATH Keywords

wind speed forecastingwind energyspace-time statistical modelgeostrophic wind

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH) (62M10) Inference from spatial processes (62M30) Inference from stochastic processes and prediction (62M20) Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics (62P12) Geostatistics (86A32)

Cites Work

• Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation
• Present Position and Potential Developments: Some Personal Views: Statistical Theory: The Prequential Approach
• Space-time wind speed forecasting for improved power system dispatch
• Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center
• Powering up with space-time wind forecasting
• Adaptive modelling and forecasting of offshore wind power fluctuations with Markov-switching autoregressive models
• Wind energy: forecasting challenges for its operational management

Cited In (5)

• Rejoinder on: Space-time wind speed forecasting for improved power system dispatch
• Spatio-temporal hydro forecasting of multireservoir inflows for hydro-thermal scheduling
• Band Depth Clustering for Nonstationary Time Series and Wind Speed Behavior
• The role of regimes in short-term wind speed forecasting at multiple wind farms
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