Present Position and Potential Developments: Some Personal Views: Statistical Theory: The Prequential Approach
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- Voronoi residual analysis of spatial point process models with applications to California earthquake forecasts
- Item screening in graphical loglinear Rasch models
- Bayes and robust Bayes prediction with an application to a rainfall prediction problem
- Incremental predictive clustering trees for online semi-supervised multi-target regression
- A new understanding of subjective probability and its generalization to lower and upper prevision.
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- Fluctuation-Dissipation Theorem and Models of Learning
- Seasonal count time series
- Robust Bayesian prediction and estimation under a squared log error loss function
- Non-parametric Bayesian hazard regression for chronic disease risk assessment
- Bayesian ikference procedures derived via the concept of relative surprise
- Learning model trees from evolving data streams
- Bayesian model selection based on proper scoring rules
- Extensive scoring rules
- Price probabilities: a class of Bayesian and non-Bayesian prediction rules
- Prequential analysis of complex data with adaptive model reselection
- Regression diagnostics meets forecast evaluation: conditional calibration, reliability diagrams, and coefficient of determination
- Game-theoretic statistics and safe anytime-valid inference
- Calibration tests for count data
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- Semi-parametric dynamic time series modelling with applications to detecting neural dynamics
- Arbitrage of forecasting experts
- Local proper scoring rules of order two
- Rejoinder on: Assessing probabilistic forecasts of multivariate quantities, with an application to ensemble predictions of surface winds
- On future directions in statistical methodologies -- some speculations
- Dynamic prediction pools: an investigation of financial frictions and forecasting performance
- A game of prediction with expert advice
- Causal interpretation of graphical models
- Bootstrap model selection for possibly dependent and heterogeneous data
- Robust Bayesian methodology with applications in credibility premium derivation and future claim size prediction
- Hierarchical analysis of SUR models with extensions to correlated serial errors and time-varying parameter models
- Catching up Faster by Switching Sooner: A Predictive Approach to Adaptive Estimation with an Application to the AIC–BIC Dilemma
- On evaluating stream learning algorithms
- Bayesian model learning based on predictive entropy
- U-plot method for testing the goodness-of-fit of the power-law process
- On count time series prediction
- Can the random walk model be beaten in out-of-sample density forecasts? Evidence from intraday foreign exchange rates
- Online forecast combinations of distributions: worst case bounds
- Efficient real-time monitoring of an emerging influenza pandemic: how feasible?
- Probabilistic Models for Bacterial Taxonomy
- Bayes factors: Prior sensitivity and model generalizability
- Model selection and prediction: Normal regression
- Gibbs distribution from sequentially predictive form of the second law
- Learning Bayesian network classifiers by risk minimization
- Multivariate Postprocessing Methods for High-Dimensional Seasonal Weather Forecasts
- Continuous-time trading and the emergence of probability
- A non-linear forecast combination procedure for binary outcomes
- Optimal estimation versus MCMC for CO\(_2\) retrievals
- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 472940 (Why is no real title available?)
- Bayesian model comparison with the Hyvärinen score: computation and consistency
- The 22 table: A discussion from a Bayesian viewpoint.
- Assessing fit in Bayesian models for spatial processes
- Real-time prequential goodness-of-fit testing of life distributions in renewal processes
- Ensemble Economic Scenario Generators: Unity Makes Strength
- Calibration tests for multivariate Gaussian forecasts
- On the complexity of function learning
- Bayesian Nonparametric Calibration and Combination of Predictive Distributions
- Interpreting uninterpretable predictors: kernel methods, Shtarkov solutions, and random forests
- On the quantification of model uncertainty: a Bayesian perspective
- Change-point problems in software and hardware reliability
- Goodness of fit tests for a class of Markov random field models
- On the appropriateness of inappropriate VaR models
- Sequentially valid tests for forecast calibration
- Robustness of one-sided cross-validation to autocorrelation
- Harold Jeffreys's \textit{Theory of probability} revisited
- Bayesian parameter estimation in the Expectancy Valence model of the Iowa gambling task
- Simultaneous prediction of independent Poisson observables
- Forward variable selection for random forest models
- Variable selection for Bayesian survival models using Bregman divergence measure
- Hierarchical Bayes models for response time data
- Prediction in several conventional contexts
- On efficient probability forecasting systems
- On universal prediction and Bayesian confirmation
- Learning Bayesian networks from big data with greedy search: computational complexity and efficient implementation
- A Beaufort Scale of Predictability
- Using the Bayesian Shtarkov solution for predictions
- Spatiotemporal probabilistic wind vector forecasting over Saudi Arabia
- Predictive cross-validation for the choice of linear mixed-effects models with application to data from the swiss HIV cohort study
- Adaptive game playing using multiplicative weights
- Incorporating geostrophic wind information for improved space-time short-term wind speed forecasting
- The no-free-lunch theorems of supervised learning
- Truncated generalized extreme value distribution-based ensemble model output statistics model for calibration of wind speed ensemble forecasts
- Suboptimal measures of predictive complexity for absolute loss function
- Nonparametric particle filtering approaches for identification and inference in nonlinear state-space dynamic systems
- Data-guided model combination by decomposition and aggregation
- Comments on: Assessing probabilistic forecasts of multivariate quantities, with an application to ensemble predictions of surface winds
- Conflict diagnostics in directed acyclic graphs, with applications in Bayesian evidence synthesis
- A generalized JM model with applications to imperfect debugging in software reliability
- Bayes factor estimation for nonlinear dynamic state space models
- Bayes factors for peri-null hypotheses
- Uncertainty quantification in complex simulation models using ensemble copula coupling
- Minimum description length revisited
- Enhancing hedging performance with the spanning polynomial projection
- Forecasting point and continuous processes: Prequential analysis
- The significance of Jacob Bernoulli's \textit{Ars Conjectandi} for the philosophy of probability today
- Poisson regression and zero-inflated Poisson regression: application to private health insurance data
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