Present Position and Potential Developments: Some Personal Views: Statistical Theory: The Prequential Approach
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- Local proper scoring rules of order two
- Rejoinder on: Assessing probabilistic forecasts of multivariate quantities, with an application to ensemble predictions of surface winds
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- Causal interpretation of graphical models
- Bootstrap model selection for possibly dependent and heterogeneous data
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- Hierarchical analysis of SUR models with extensions to correlated serial errors and time-varying parameter models
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- On count time series prediction
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- Online forecast combinations of distributions: worst case bounds
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- Probabilistic Models for Bacterial Taxonomy
- Bayes factors: Prior sensitivity and model generalizability
- Model selection and prediction: Normal regression
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- Learning Bayesian network classifiers by risk minimization
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- The 22 table: A discussion from a Bayesian viewpoint.
- Assessing fit in Bayesian models for spatial processes
- Real-time prequential goodness-of-fit testing of life distributions in renewal processes
- Ensemble Economic Scenario Generators: Unity Makes Strength
- Calibration tests for multivariate Gaussian forecasts
- On the complexity of function learning
- Bayesian Nonparametric Calibration and Combination of Predictive Distributions
- Interpreting uninterpretable predictors: kernel methods, Shtarkov solutions, and random forests
- On the quantification of model uncertainty: a Bayesian perspective
- Change-point problems in software and hardware reliability
- Goodness of fit tests for a class of Markov random field models
- On the appropriateness of inappropriate VaR models
- Sequentially valid tests for forecast calibration
- Robustness of one-sided cross-validation to autocorrelation
- Harold Jeffreys's \textit{Theory of probability} revisited
- Bayesian parameter estimation in the Expectancy Valence model of the Iowa gambling task
- Simultaneous prediction of independent Poisson observables
- Forward variable selection for random forest models
- Variable selection for Bayesian survival models using Bregman divergence measure
- Hierarchical Bayes models for response time data
- Prediction in several conventional contexts
- On efficient probability forecasting systems
- On universal prediction and Bayesian confirmation
- Learning Bayesian networks from big data with greedy search: computational complexity and efficient implementation
- A Beaufort Scale of Predictability
- Using the Bayesian Shtarkov solution for predictions
- Spatiotemporal probabilistic wind vector forecasting over Saudi Arabia
- Predictive cross-validation for the choice of linear mixed-effects models with application to data from the swiss HIV cohort study
- Adaptive game playing using multiplicative weights
- Incorporating geostrophic wind information for improved space-time short-term wind speed forecasting
- The no-free-lunch theorems of supervised learning
- Truncated generalized extreme value distribution-based ensemble model output statistics model for calibration of wind speed ensemble forecasts
- Suboptimal measures of predictive complexity for absolute loss function
- Nonparametric particle filtering approaches for identification and inference in nonlinear state-space dynamic systems
- Data-guided model combination by decomposition and aggregation
- Comments on: Assessing probabilistic forecasts of multivariate quantities, with an application to ensemble predictions of surface winds
- Conflict diagnostics in directed acyclic graphs, with applications in Bayesian evidence synthesis
- A generalized JM model with applications to imperfect debugging in software reliability
- Bayes factor estimation for nonlinear dynamic state space models
- Bayes factors for peri-null hypotheses
- Uncertainty quantification in complex simulation models using ensemble copula coupling
- Minimum description length revisited
- Enhancing hedging performance with the spanning polynomial projection
- Forecasting point and continuous processes: Prequential analysis
- The significance of Jacob Bernoulli's \textit{Ars Conjectandi} for the philosophy of probability today
- Poisson regression and zero-inflated Poisson regression: application to private health insurance data
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