Efficient real-time monitoring of an emerging influenza pandemic: how feasible?
From MaRDI portal
Publication:2179944
Abstract: A prompt public health response to a new epidemic relies on the ability to monitor and predict its evolution in real time as data accumulate. The 2009 A/H1N1 outbreak in the UK revealed pandemic data as noisy, contaminated, potentially biased, and originating from multiple sources. This seriously challenges the capacity for real-time monitoring. Here we assess the feasibility of real-time inference based on such data by constructing an analytic tool combining an age-stratified SEIR transmission model with various observation models describing the data generation mechanisms. As batches of data become available, a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm is developed to synthesise multiple imperfect data streams, iterate epidemic inferences and assess model adequacy amidst a rapidly evolving epidemic environment, substantially reducing computation time in comparison to standard MCMC, to ensure timely delivery of real-time epidemic assessments. In application to simulated data designed to mimic the 2009 A/H1N1 epidemic, SMC is shown to have additional benefits in terms of assessing predictive performance and coping with parameter non-identifiability.
Recommendations
- Tracking epidemics with google flu trends data and a state-space SEIR model
- Estimating epidemic parameters: application to H1N1 pandemic data
- Efficient MCMC for temporal epidemics via parameter reduction
- Inference for discretely observed stochastic kinetic networks with applications to epidemic modeling
- Synthesising evidence to estimate pandemic (2009) A/H1N1 influenza severity in 2009--2011
Cites work
- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 5919872 (Why is no real title available?)
- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 469132 (Why is no real title available?)
- A sequential particle filter method for static models
- An adaptive sequential Monte Carlo sampler
- Blind Deconvolution via Sequential Imputations
- Efficient real-time monitoring of an emerging influenza pandemic: how feasible?
- Following a moving target -- Monte Carlo inference for dynamic Bayesian models
- Inference for Lévy-driven stochastic volatility models via adaptive sequential Monte Carlo
- Modeling and Real-Time Prediction of Classical Swine Fever Epidemics
- Monitoring and prediction of an epidemic outbreak using syndromic observations
- Multivariate variance-covariance components (MVCC) and generalized intraclass correlation coefficient (GICC)
- On Testing the Validity of Sequential Probability Forecasts
- Optimal scaling for various Metropolis-Hastings algorithms.
- Predictive model assessment for count data
- Present Position and Potential Developments: Some Personal Views: Statistical Theory: The Prequential Approach
- Real-Parameter Evolutionary Monte Carlo With Applications to Bayesian Mixture Models
- Riemann manifold Langevin and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods. With discussion and authors' reply
- Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Dynamic Systems
- Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for State and Parameter Estimation in Abruptly Changing Environments
- Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers
- Sequential Monte Carlo methods for high-dimensional inverse problems: a case study for the Navier-Stokes equations
- Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation
- The Estimation of Intraclass Correlation in the Analysis of Family Data
- The random walk Metropolis: linking theory and practice through a case study
- The zig-zag process and super-efficient sampling for Bayesian analysis of big data
- Tracking epidemics with google flu trends data and a state-space SEIR model
Cited in
(9)- Joining and splitting models with Markov melding
- When did coronavirus arrive in Europe?
- Efficient real-time monitoring of an emerging influenza pandemic: how feasible?
- Accelerating Bayesian inference for stochastic epidemic models using incidence data
- Tracking epidemics with google flu trends data and a state-space SEIR model
- Synthesising evidence to estimate pandemic (2009) A/H1N1 influenza severity in 2009--2011
- Efficient empirical likelihood inference for recovery rate of COVID19 under double-censoring
- Joint quantification of transmission dynamics and diagnostic accuracy applied to influenza
- Evidence synthesis for stochastic epidemic models
This page was built for publication: Efficient real-time monitoring of an emerging influenza pandemic: how feasible?
Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q2179944)
