Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability

From MaRDI portal
Publication:4895056

DOI10.2307/2171956zbMath0854.62101OpenAlexW3122351404WikidataQ59486380 ScholiaQ59486380MaRDI QIDQ4895056

Kenneth D. West

Publication date: 13 October 1996

Published in: Econometrica (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL: https://doi.org/10.2307/2171956




Related Items (only showing first 100 items - show all)

Forecasting national recessions of the United States with state-level climate risks: evidence from model averaging in Markov-switching modelsOut-of-sample tests for conditional quantile coverage an application to Growth-at-RiskForecasting Levels in Loglinear Unit Root ModelsTAIL FORECASTING WITH MULTIVARIATE BAYESIAN ADDITIVE REGRESSION TREESComparing forecasting performance in cross-sectionsEvaluating forecast performance with state dependenceModel averaging for asymptotically optimal combined forecastsProper Scoring Rules for Evaluating Density Forecasts with Asymmetric Loss FunctionsThe Bayesian nested Lasso for mixed frequency regression modelsOn Testing Equal Conditional Predictive Ability Under Measurement ErrorTesting for Unobserved Heterogeneity via k-means ClusteringTime-varying forecast combination for factor-augmented regressions with smooth structural changesTests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested modelsDangers of data mining: The case of calendar effects in stock returnsEncompassing tests when no model is encompassingPredictive ability with cointegrated variablesOn the selection of forecasting modelsBootstrap conditional distribution tests in the presence of dynamic misspecificationOPTIMALITY OF GLS FOR ONE-STEP-AHEAD FORECASTING WITH REGARIMA AND RELATED MODELS WHEN THE REGRESSION IS MISSPECIFIEDApproximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested modelsRobust ranking of multivariate GARCH models by problem dimensionForecasting with a noncausal VAR modelWhat does financial volatility tell us about macroeconomic fluctuations?Are more data always better for factor analysis? Results for the euro area, the six largest euro area countries and the UKUsing out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the martingale difference hypothesisPredictive density and conditional confidence interval accuracy testsA comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time seriesConsistent ranking of volatility modelsA joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term-structure dynamicsAn empirical investigation of the usefulness of ARFIMA models for predicting macroeconomic and financial time seriesSimulation based selection of competing structural econometric modelsCopula-based multivariate GARCH model with uncorrelated dependent errorsA panel data approach to economic forecasting: the bias-corrected average forecastTesting conditional asymmetry: a residual-based approachHeterogeneous beliefs, regret, and uncertainty: the role of speculation in energy price dynamicsMONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION IN THE UNITED STATESTail-risk protection trading strategiesAccumulated prediction errors, information criteria and optimal forecasting for autoregressive time seriesReal-time Bayesian learning and bond return predictabilityNon-parametric news impact curve: a variational approachRolling window selection for out-of-sample forecasting with time-varying parametersNegative Moment Bounds for Stochastic Regression Models with Deterministic Trends and Their Applications to Prediction ProblemsDistribution of test statistics under parameter uncertainty for time series data: an application to testing skewness, kurtosis and normalityPredicting the yield curve using forecast combinationsFactor Model Forecasts of Exchange RatesMind the gap! -- A monetarist view of the open-economy Phillips curveMulti-population mortality modeling: when the data is too much and not enoughOn comparing multi-horizon forecastsTesting the predictive ability of corridor implied volatility under GARCH modelsEmpirical assessment of an intertemporal option pricing model with latent variables.A nonparametric model for spot price dynamics and pricing of futures contracts in electricity marketsMulti-criteria classification for pricing European optionsAsymptotic inference about predictive accuracy using high frequency dataROBUST FORECAST COMPARISONDynamic hedging with futures: a copula-based GARCH model with high-frequency dataAsymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causalityBacktesting portfolio value‐at‐risk with estimated portfolio weightsA predictability test for a small number of nested modelsRobust score and portmanteau tests of volatility spilloverNoise fit, estimation error and a Sharpe information criterionConditional predictive density evaluation in the presence of instabilitiesTime-varying combinations of predictive densities using nonlinear filteringForecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?Evaluating probability forecastsON THE SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY IN EXCHANGE RATE PREDICTABILITYLarge-scale volatility models: theoretical properties of professionals’ practiceThe three-pass regression filter: a new approach to forecasting using many predictorsBayesian compressed vector autoregressionsA modified Diebold-Mariano test for equal forecast accuracy with clustered dependenceA new bootstrap-based forecast evaluation method tested on time seriesA new method for estimating the forecast quality with consideration for the errors of calculating the unknown parametersEvaluating Direct Multistep ForecastsComparing the accuracy of multivariate density forecasts in selected regions of the copula supportMoment tests for density forecast evaluation in the presence of parameter estimation uncertaintyTests of equal accuracy for nested models with estimated factorsComparison of misspecified calibrated models: the minimum distance approachOn loss functions and ranking forecasting performances of multivariate volatility modelsData-based ranking of realised volatility estimatorsForecasting the volatility of crude oil futures using intraday dataNonparametric monitoring of equal predictive abilityModeling structural breaks in economic relationships using large shocksIn-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?Statistical tests for multiple forecast comparisonBayesian MIDAS penalized regressions: estimation, selection, and predictionModel averaging in Markov-switching models: predicting national recessions with regional dataForecasting US interest rates and business cycle with a nonlinear regime switching VAR modelSelection between models through multi-step-ahead forecastingWeighted maximum likelihood for dynamic factor analysis and forecasting with mixed frequency dataTo Combine Forecasts or to Combine Information?Forecasting volatility with support vector machine-based GARCH modelThe use of encompassing tests for forecast combinationsComparison of value-at-risk models using the MCS approachVolatility forecast comparison using imperfect volatility proxiesLikelihood-based scoring rules for comparing density forecasts in tailsEditorial. Annals issue on forecasting -- guest editors' introductionUnderstanding models' forecasting performanceImproved Tests for Forecast Comparisons in the Presence of InstabilitiesMultivariate out-of-sample tests for Granger causalityARMA representation of integrated and realized variancesARE EXCHANGE RATES REALLY RANDOM WALKS? SOME EVIDENCE ROBUST TO PARAMETER INSTABILITY




This page was built for publication: Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability