Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models

From MaRDI portal
Publication:5952027

DOI10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00071-9zbMath0980.62105OpenAlexW3125665000WikidataQ127571025 ScholiaQ127571025MaRDI QIDQ5952027

Todd E. Clark, Michael W. McCracken

Publication date: 6 March 2002

Published in: Journal of Econometrics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/s0304-4076(01)00071-9




Related Items

On the selection of forecasting modelsBootstrap conditional distribution tests in the presence of dynamic misspecificationApproximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested modelsSelection of estimation window in the presence of breaksThe determinants of CDS spreads: evidence from the model spaceUsing out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the martingale difference hypothesisPredictive density and conditional confidence interval accuracy testsA comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time seriesConsistent ranking of volatility modelsAn empirical investigation of the usefulness of ARFIMA models for predicting macroeconomic and financial time seriesForecasts of US short-term interest rates: a flexible forecast combination approachMONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION IN THE UNITED STATESEmerging stock market volatility and economic fundamentals: the importance of US uncertainty spillovers, financial and health crisisRolling window selection for out-of-sample forecasting with time-varying parametersMind the gap! -- A monetarist view of the open-economy Phillips curveMulti-population mortality modeling: when the data is too much and not enoughStock prices-inflation puzzle and the predictability of stock market returnsOut-of-sample tests for conditional quantile coverage an application to Growth-at-RiskComparing forecasting performance in cross-sectionsEvaluating forecast performance with state dependenceShort-run electricity load forecasting with combinations of stationary wavelet transformsProper Scoring Rules for Evaluating Density Forecasts with Asymmetric Loss FunctionsOn Testing Equal Conditional Predictive Ability Under Measurement ErrorMulti-level factor analysis of bond risk premiaThe discontinuation of the EUR/CHF minimum exchange rate: information from option-implied break probabilitiesDetermining the MSE-optimal cross section to forecastAsymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causalityForecasting inflation using commodity price aggregatesA predictability test for a small number of nested modelsImproving judgmental adjustment of model-based forecastsAre forecast updates progressive?Evaluating Direct Multistep ForecastsEnriching demand forecasts with managerial information to improve inventory replenishment decisions: exploiting judgment and fostering learningTests of equal accuracy for nested models with estimated factorsOn loss functions and ranking forecasting performances of multivariate volatility modelsReexamining time-varying bond risk premia in the post-financial crisis eraShort-horizon return predictability and oil pricesIn-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?Predictive ability with cointegrated variablesSelection between models through multi-step-ahead forecastingWeighted maximum likelihood for dynamic factor analysis and forecasting with mixed frequency dataBusiness cycles in the euro area defined with coincident economic indicators and predicted with leading economic indicatorsA new production function estimate of the euro area output gapDo experts' adjustments on model-based SKU-level forecasts improve forecast quality?Real-time nowcasting of nominal GDP with structural breaksComparison of value-at-risk models using the MCS approachEditorial. Annals issue on forecasting -- guest editors' introductionUnderstanding models' forecasting performanceTime to build and bond risk premiaTime to build and bond risk premiaCapturing volatility persistence: a dynamically complete realized EGARCH-MIDAS modelDoes modeling a structural break improve forecast accuracy?Improved Tests for Forecast Comparisons in the Presence of InstabilitiesMultivariate out-of-sample tests for Granger causalityA GMM procedure for combining volatility forecastsCombining forecasts based on multiple encompassing tests in a macroeconomic core systemThe predictive performance of the currency futures basis for spot returnsARE EXCHANGE RATES REALLY RANDOM WALKS? SOME EVIDENCE ROBUST TO PARAMETER INSTABILITYEvaluation of volatility predictions in a VaR frameworkChange‐point monitoring in linear modelsNested forecast model comparisons: a new approach to testing equal accuracyA consistent test for nonlinear out of sample predictive accuracy.Conditional rotation between forecasting modelsThe power of tests of predictive ability in the presence of structural breaks



Cites Work