Calibration, sharpness and the weighting of experts in a linear opinion pool

DOI10.1007/s10479-015-1846-0zbMath1322.90042OpenAlexW2067473877MaRDI QIDQ492818

Erim Kardeş, Stephen C. Hora

Publication date: 21 August 2015

Published in: Annals of Operations Research (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-015-1846-0

zbMATH Keywords

calibrationsubjective probabilityscoring rulesBrier scoreprobabilistic expert judgmentquadratic scoresubject matter expert

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian problems; characterization of Bayes procedures (62C10) Management decision making, including multiple objectives (90B50)

Related Items (1)

Expert judgement for dependence in probabilistic modelling: a systematic literature review and future research directions

Uses Software

• KNITRO
• Matlab

Cites Work

• Bayesian analysis with limited communication
• Conditionally externally Bayesian pooling operators in chain graphs
• Combining probability distributions: a critique and an annotated bibliography. With comments, and a rejoinder by the authors
• An Analytic Method for Evaluating the Performance of Aggregation Rules for Probability Densities
• Approximation Theorems of Mathematical Statistics
• Optimal Linear Opinion Pools
• The Opinion Pool
• Scoring Rules for Continuous Probability Distributions
• Combining Probability Forecasts
• Median Aggregation of Distribution Functions
• Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation
• Probabilistic Forecasts, Calibration and Sharpness
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