Calibration, sharpness and the weighting of experts in a linear opinion pool

DOI10.1007/S10479-015-1846-0MaRDI QIDQ492818zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Stephen C. Hora, Erim Kardeş

Publication date 21 August 2015

Published in Annals of Operations Research (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-015-1846-0

zbMATH Keywords

calibrationscoring rulessubjective probabilityBrier scoreprobabilistic expert judgmentquadratic scoresubject matter expert

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Management decision making, including multiple objectives (90B50) Bayesian problems; characterization of Bayes procedures (62C10)

Recommendations

• Optimal Linear Opinion Pools
• Coherent combination of experts' opinions. (With discussion)
• A Bayesian justification for the linear pooling of opinions
• Log-linear pool to combine prior distributions: a suggestion for a calibration-based approach
• Extracting the collective wisdom in probabilistic judgments

Cites work

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• Scoring Rules for Continuous Probability Distributions
• Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation
• The Opinion Pool

Cited in

(15)

• Estimating uncertainties using judgmental forecasts with expert heterogeneity
• Forecast aggregation via recalibration
• Aggregating predictions from experts: a review of statistical methods, experiments, and applications
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 5864689 (Why is no real title available?)
• Expert judgement for dependence in probabilistic modelling: a systematic literature review and future research directions
• Understanding pooled subjective probability estimates
• How to Weight Scientists' Probabilities Is Not a Big Problem: Comment on Barnes
• From Proper Scoring Rules to Max-Min Optimal Forecast Aggregation
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 4104186 (Why is no real title available?)
• Convex combinations in judgment aggregation
• Are performance weights beneficial? Investigating the random expert hypothesis
• Optimal probability aggregation based on generalized Brier scoring
• Optimal prediction pools
• Meta-inductive probability aggregation
• Extracting the collective wisdom in probabilistic judgments

Describes a project that uses

Uses Software

• Matlab
• KNITRO

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