Optimal Linear Opinion Pools

DOI10.1287/MNSC.37.5.546MaRDI QIDQ3352259zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Morris H. DeGroot, J. Mortera

Publication date 1991

Published in Management Science (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.37.5.546

zbMATH Keywords

weightsscoring rulesteamscommon priorcombining probability distributionslinear opinion poolmultiple decision makersoptimal weightsopinion poolquadratic loss functionscommon lossgroup of Bayesiansrestricted communications

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Decision theory (91B06) Bayesian problems; characterization of Bayes procedures (62C10)

Recommendations

• Calibration, sharpness and the weighting of experts in a linear opinion pool
• Aggregating opinions through logarithmic pooling
• A Bayesian justification for the linear pooling of opinions
• Pooling operators with the marginalization property
• A characterization theorem for externally Bayesian groups

Cited in

(19)

• Resolving some contradictions in the theory of linear opinion pools.
• Coherent combination of experts' opinions. (With discussion)
• Optimal binary prediction for group decision making
• Conditionally externally Bayesian pooling operators in chain graphs
• Pooling operators with the marginalization property
• A Bayesian justification for the linear pooling of opinions
• Understanding pooled subjective probability estimates
• The maximal difference among expert's opinions
• Can coherent predictions be contradictory?
• Calibration, sharpness and the weighting of experts in a linear opinion pool
• Bounds on the probability of radically different opinions
• Extremizing and Antiextremizing in Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts
• Optimal Reporting of Predictions
• Bayesian analysis with limited communication
• Optimal square-root pooling from expert opinions
• An ordinal characterization of the linear opinion pool
• Learning optimal forecast aggregation in partial evidence environments
• Optimal prediction pools
• A REPRESENTATION OF KEYNES’S LONG-TERM EXPECTATION IN FINANCIAL MARKETS

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