Can coherent predictions be contradictory?

DOI10.1017/APR.2020.51MaRDI QIDQ5022283zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors K. Burdzy, Soumik Pal

Publication date 18 January 2022

Published in Advances in Applied Probability (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1017/apr.2020.51

zbMATH Keywords

conditional probabilityjoint distribution of conditional expectationsopinion

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Probability distributions: general theory (60E05) Inequalities; stochastic orderings (60E15)

Recommendations

• Coherent combination of experts' opinions. (With discussion)
• Aggregating disparate estimates of chance
• The maximal difference among expert's opinions
• Bounds on the probability of radically different opinions
• Maximum Entropy Aggregation of Expert Predictions

Cites work

• A Bayesian view of assessing uncertainty and comparing expert opinion
• A characterization theorem for externally Bayesian groups
• A Divergent, Two-Parameter, Bounded Martingale
• Aggregating expert judgement
• Bounds on the probability of radically different opinions
• Coherent combination of experts' opinions. (With discussion)
• Combining predictive distributions
• Combining Probability Forecasts
• Generalised density forecast combinations
• Optimal Linear Opinion Pools
• Probabilistic forecasting of wave height for offshore wind turbine maintenance
• Progressive filtration expansions via a process, with applications to insider trading
• Resonance. From probability to epistemology and back
• The search for certainty. On the clash of science and philosophy of probability

Cited in

(9)

• Bounds on the probability of radically different opinions
• The maximal difference among expert's opinions
• A combinatorial proof of the Burdzy-Pitman conjecture
• Regularized Aggregation of One-Off Probability Predictions
• A population's feasible posterior beliefs
• Doob's estimate for coherent random variables and maximal operators on trees
• Contradictory predictions with multiple agents
• On the existence of extreme coherent distributions with no atoms
• Coherent distributions on the square-extreme points and asymptotics

This page was built for publication: Can coherent predictions be contradictory?

Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q5022283)