Bounds on the probability of radically different opinions

DOI10.1214/20-ECP296MaRDI QIDQ2183111zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors K. Burdzy, Jim Pitman

Publication date 26 May 2020

Published in Electronic Communications in Probability (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1903.07773, https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ecp/1581325211

zbMATH Keywords

maximal inequalityconditional probabilityopinionjoint distribution of conditional expectations

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Inequalities; stochastic orderings (60E15)

Abstract: We establish bounds on the probability that two different agents, who share an initial opinion expressed as a probability distribution on an abstract probability space, given two different sources of information, may come to radically different opinions regarding the conditional probability of the same event.

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Cited in

(10)

• A combinatorial proof of the Burdzy-Pitman conjecture
• A population's feasible posterior beliefs
• Contradictory predictions with multiple agents
• Doob's estimate for coherent random variables and maximal operators on trees
• On the existence of extreme coherent distributions with no atoms
• Coherent distributions on the square-extreme points and asymptotics
• The maximal difference among expert's opinions
• Can coherent predictions be contradictory?
• Bounds on the probability of radically different opinions
• Belief inducibility and informativeness

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