Bounds on the probability of radically different opinions

DOI10.1214/20-ECP296zbMATH Open1456.60052OpenAlexW3005542765MaRDI QIDQ2183111FDOQ2183111

Authors: K. Burdzy, Jim Pitman 

Publication date: 26 May 2020

Published in: Electronic Communications in Probability (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We establish bounds on the probability that two different agents, who share an initial opinion expressed as a probability distribution on an abstract probability space, given two different sources of information, may come to radically different opinions regarding the conditional probability of the same event.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1903.07773

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zbMATH Keywords

maximal inequalityconditional probabilityopinionjoint distribution of conditional expectations

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Inequalities; stochastic orderings (60E15)

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Cited In (10)

• A population's feasible posterior beliefs
• A combinatorial proof of the Burdzy-Pitman conjecture
• Contradictory predictions with multiple agents
• Doob's estimate for coherent random variables and maximal operators on trees
• On the existence of extreme coherent distributions with no atoms
• Coherent distributions on the square-extreme points and asymptotics
• The maximal difference among expert's opinions
• Can coherent predictions be contradictory?
• Bounds on the probability of radically different opinions
• Belief inducibility and informativeness

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