Bounds on the probability of radically different opinions

DOI10.1214/20-ECP296zbMATH Open1456.60052arXiv1903.07773OpenAlexW3005542765MaRDI QIDQ2183111FDOQ2183111

K. Burdzy, Jim Pitman

Publication date: 26 May 2020

Published in: Electronic Communications in Probability (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We establish bounds on the probability that two different agents, who share an initial opinion expressed as a probability distribution on an abstract probability space, given two different sources of information, may come to radically different opinions regarding the conditional probability of the same event.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1903.07773

zbMATH Keywords

maximal inequalityconditional probabilityopinionjoint distribution of conditional expectations

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Inequalities; stochastic orderings (60E15)

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• A population's feasible posterior beliefs
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• Can Coherent Predictions be Contradictory?
• Doob's estimate for coherent random variables and maximal operators on trees
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• Bounds on the probability of radically different opinions
• Belief inducibility and informativeness

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