Parametric estimation of ordinary differential equations with orthogonality conditions

DOI10.1080/01621459.2013.841583zbMATH Open1367.62081arXiv1410.7566OpenAlexW4300427750MaRDI QIDQ4975341FDOQ4975341

Authors: Nicolas J.-B. Brunel, Quentin Clairon, Florence d'Alché-Buc 

Publication date: 4 August 2017

Published in: Journal of the American Statistical Association (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Differential equations are commonly used to model dynamical deterministic systems in applications. When statistical parameter estimation is required to calibrate theoretical models to data, classical statistical estimators are often confronted to complex and potentially ill-posed optimization problem. As a consequence, alternative estimators to classical parametric estimators are needed for obtaining reliable estimates. We propose a gradient matching approach for the estimation of parametric Ordinary Differential Equations observed with noise. Starting from a nonparametric proxy of a true solution of the ODE, we build a parametric estimator based on a variational characterization of the solution. As a Generalized Moment Estimator, our estimator must satisfy a set of orthogonal conditions that are solved in the least squares sense. Despite the use of a nonparametric estimator, we prove the root-$n$ consistency and asymptotic normality of the Orthogonal Conditions estimator. We can derive confidence sets thanks to a closed-form expression for the asymptotic variance. Finally, the OC estimator is compared to classical estimators in several (simulated and real) experiments and ODE models in order to show its versatility and relevance with respect to classical Gradient Matching and Nonlinear Least Squares estimators. In particular, we show on a real dataset of influenza infection that the approach gives reliable estimates. Moreover, we show that our approach can deal directly with more elaborated models such as Delay Differential Equation (DDE).

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1410.7566

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zbMATH Keywords

nonparametric statisticsSobolev spacevariational formulationplug-in propertymethods of momentsgradient matching

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Point estimation (62F10) Nonparametric estimation (62G05) Parametric inference under constraints (62F30) Stochastic ordinary differential equations (aspects of stochastic analysis) (60H10) Ordinary differential equations and systems with randomness (34F05)

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Cited In (22)

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• Tracking for parameter and state estimation in possibly misspecified partially observed linear ordinary differential equations
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• Parameter estimation of ODE's via nonparametric estimators
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Uses Software

• SemiPar

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