Pickands' constant H_ does not equal 1/(1/), for small
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Publication:502892
Abstract: Pickands' constants appear in various classical limit results about tail probabilities of suprema of Gaussian processes. It is an often quoted conjecture that perhaps for all , but it is also frequently observed that this doesn't seem compatible with evidence coming from simulations. We prove the conjecture is false for small , and in fact that for all sufficiently small . The proof is a refinement of the "conditioning and comparison" approach to lower bounds for upper tail probabilities, developed in a previous paper of the author. Some calculations of hitting probabilities for Brownian motion are also involved.
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