Pickands' constant H_ does not equal 1/(1/), for small

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Publication:502892



Abstract: Pickands' constants Halpha appear in various classical limit results about tail probabilities of suprema of Gaussian processes. It is an often quoted conjecture that perhaps Halpha=1/Gamma(1/alpha) for all 0<alphaleq2, but it is also frequently observed that this doesn't seem compatible with evidence coming from simulations. We prove the conjecture is false for small alpha, and in fact that Halphageq(1.1527)1/alpha/Gamma(1/alpha) for all sufficiently small alpha. The proof is a refinement of the "conditioning and comparison" approach to lower bounds for upper tail probabilities, developed in a previous paper of the author. Some calculations of hitting probabilities for Brownian motion are also involved.












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