Revisiting SIR in the age of COVID-19: explicit solutions and control problems

DOI10.1137/20M1372913MaRDI QIDQ5072285zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Vivek Borkar, D. Manjunath

Publication date 27 April 2022

Published in SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.06445

zbMATH Keywords

SIR epidemic modelcontrol of epidemicsmultiobjective multicommunity control of epidemicsnonppopulation conserving SIR

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Applications of optimal control and differential games (49N90)

Abstract: The non-population conserving SIR (SIR-NC) model to describe the spread of infections in a community is proposed and studied. Unlike the standard SIR model, SIR-NC does not assume population conservation. Although similar in form to the standard SIR, SIR-NC admits a closed form solution while allowing us to model mortality, and also provides different, and arguably a more realistic, interpretation of the model parameters. Numerical comparisons of this SIR-NC model with the standard, population conserving, SIR model are provided. Extensions to include imported infections, interacting communities, and models that include births and deaths are presented and analyzed. Several numerical examples are also presented to illustrate these models. Two control problems for the SIR-NC epidemic model are presented. First we consider the continuous time model predictive control in which the cost function variables correspond to the levels of lockdown, the level of testing and quarantine, and the number of infections. We also include a switching cost for moving between lockdown levels. A discrete time version that is more amenable to computation is then presented along with numerical illustrations. We then consider a multi-objective and multi-community control where we can define multiple cost functions on the different communities and obtain the minimum cost control to keep the value function corresponding to these control objectives below a prescribed threshold.

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Cited in

(8)

• Contact rate epidemic control of COVID-19: an equilibrium view
• Bifurcation analysis and optimal control of COVID-19 with exogenous reinfection and media coverages
• Global dynamics of a reaction-diffusion SEIVQR epidemic model in almost periodic environments
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 7668226 (Why is no real title available?)
• Stochastic near-optimal controls for treatment and vaccination in a COVID-19 model with transmission incorporating Lévy jumps
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• Optimal control of the SIR model in the presence of transmission and treatment uncertainty
• Beyond SIRD models: a novel dynamic model for epidemics, relating infected with entries to health care units and application for identification and restraining policy

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