Optimal control of an SIR epidemic through finite-time non-pharmaceutical intervention
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Publication:2040271
Epidemiology (92D30) Mathematical modeling or simulation for problems pertaining to biology (92-10) Control problems involving ordinary differential equations (34H05) Applications of optimal control and differential games (49N90) Hamilton-Jacobi equations in optimal control and differential games (49L12)
Abstract: We consider the problem of controlling an SIR-model epidemic by temporarily reducing the rate of contact within a population. The control takes the form of a multiplicative reduction in the contact rate of infectious individuals. The control is allowed to be applied only over a finite time interval, while the objective is to minimize the total number of individuals infected in the long-time limit, subject to some cost function for the control. We first consider the no-cost scenario and analytically determine the optimal control and solution. We then study solutions when a cost of intervention is included, as well as a cost associated with overwhelming the available medical resources. Examples are studied through the numerical solution of the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. Finally, we provide some examples related directly to the current pandemic.
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