Optimal Intervention Strategies for Minimizing Total Incidence During an Epidemic

DOI10.1137/22M1504433zbMATH Open1517.92025arXiv2202.07780MaRDI QIDQ6038796FDOQ6038796

Authors: T. Britton, Lasse Leskelä 

Publication date: 3 May 2023

Published in: SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: This article considers the minimization of the total number of infected individuals over the course of an epidemic in which the rate of infectious contacts can be reduced by time-dependent nonpharmaceutical interventions. The societal and economic costs of interventions are taken into account using a linear budget constraint which imposes a trade-off between short-term heavy interventions and long-term light interventions. We search for an optimal intervention strategy in an infinite-dimensional space of controls containing multiple consecutive lockdowns, gradually imposed and lifted restrictions, and various heuristic controls based for example on tracking the effective reproduction number. Mathematical analysis shows that among all such strategies, the global optimum is achieved by a single constant-level lockdown of maximum possible magnitude. Numerical simulations highlight the need of careful timing of such interventions, and illustrate their benefits and disadvantages compared to strategies designed for minimizing peak prevalence. Rather counterintuitively, adding restrictions prior to the start of a well-planned intervention strategy may even increase the total incidence.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.07780

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zbMATH Keywords

SIR epidemic modelepidemic final sizeherd immunitylockdown policyprevention strategy

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Existence theories for optimal control problems involving ordinary differential equations (49J15)

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Cited In (14)

• Return-to-normality in a piecewise deterministic Markov SIR+V model with pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions
• Suppressing epidemic spreading by optimizing the allocation of resources between prevention and treatment
• Optimal interventions of infectious disease
• An explicit formula for minimizing the infected peak in an SIR epidemic model when using a fixed number of complete lockdowns
• Optimal strategies for coordinating infection control and socio-economic activities
• Taking preventive measures against infections with a cost in static and dynamic single-group populations
• Optimal management of an epidemic: lockdown, vaccine and value of life
• Minimizing the epidemic final size while containing the infected peak prevalence in SIR systems
• Scheduling fixed length quarantines to minimize the total number of fatalities during an epidemic
• Design and analysis of infectious disease studies. Abstracts from the workshop held February 19--25, 2023
• Optimality of a time-dependent treatment profile during an epidemic
• MPC without terminal ingredients tailored to the SEIR compartmental epidemic model
• Minimising the use of costly control measures in an epidemic elimination strategy: a simple mathematical model
• Role of optimal screening and treatment on infectious diseases dynamics in presence of self-protection of susceptible

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