Predicting population extinction in lattice-based birth–death–movement models
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Publication:5160983
DOI10.1098/RSPA.2020.0089zbMATH Open1472.92180arXiv2002.05357OpenAlexW3033170042WikidataQ98649520 ScholiaQ98649520MaRDI QIDQ5160983FDOQ5160983
Stuart T. Johnston, Edmund J. Crampin, Matthew J. Simpson
Publication date: 29 October 2021
Published in: Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences (Search for Journal in Brave)
Abstract: The question of whether a population will persist or go extinct is of key interest throughout ecology and biology. Various mathematical techniques allow us to generate knowledge regarding individual behaviour, which can be analysed to obtain predictions about the ultimate survival or extinction of the population. A common model employed to describe population dynamics is the lattice-based random walk model with crowding (exclusion). This model can incorporate behaviour such as birth, death and movement, while including natural phenomena such as finite size effects. Performing sufficiently many realisations of the random walk model to extract representative population behaviour is computationally intensive. Therefore, continuum approximations of random walk models are routinely employed. However, standard continuum approximations are notoriously incapable of making accurate predictions about population extinction. Here, we develop a new continuum approximation, the state space diffusion approximation, which explicitly accounts for population extinction. Predictions from our approximation faithfully capture the behaviour in the random walk model, and provides additional information compared to standard approximations. We examine the influence of the number of lattice sites and initial number of individuals on the long-term population behaviour, and demonstrate the reduction in computation time between the random walk model and our approximation.
Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.05357
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