Predicting population extinction in lattice-based birth–death–movement models

DOI10.1098/RSPA.2020.0089MaRDI QIDQ5160983zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Stuart T. Johnston, Matthew J. Simpson, Edmund J. Crampin

Publication date 29 October 2021

Published in Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.05357

zbMATH Keywords

random walkdiffusionextinctionpopulation dynamicsmathematical modellingcontinuum limitapplied mathematics

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Population dynamics (general) (92D25)

Abstract: The question of whether a population will persist or go extinct is of key interest throughout ecology and biology. Various mathematical techniques allow us to generate knowledge regarding individual behaviour, which can be analysed to obtain predictions about the ultimate survival or extinction of the population. A common model employed to describe population dynamics is the lattice-based random walk model with crowding (exclusion). This model can incorporate behaviour such as birth, death and movement, while including natural phenomena such as finite size effects. Performing sufficiently many realisations of the random walk model to extract representative population behaviour is computationally intensive. Therefore, continuum approximations of random walk models are routinely employed. However, standard continuum approximations are notoriously incapable of making accurate predictions about population extinction. Here, we develop a new continuum approximation, the state space diffusion approximation, which explicitly accounts for population extinction. Predictions from our approximation faithfully capture the behaviour in the random walk model, and provides additional information compared to standard approximations. We examine the influence of the number of lattice sites and initial number of individuals on the long-term population behaviour, and demonstrate the reduction in computation time between the random walk model and our approximation.

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Cited in

(4)

• Population dynamics with spatial structure and an Allee effect
• Agent-based modelling of sports riots
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• Extinction of bistable populations is affected by the shape of their initial spatial distribution

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