A network epidemic model with preventive rewiring: comparative analysis of the initial phase

DOI10.1007/S11538-016-0227-4MaRDI QIDQ518227zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors David Juher, Joan Saldaña, T. Britton

Publication date 28 March 2017

Published in Bulletin of Mathematical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1512.00344, http://hdl.handle.net/10256/13174

zbMATH Keywords

branching processnetwork epidemic modelspair approximationpreventive rewiring

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of branching processes (60J85) Social networks; opinion dynamics (91D30) Epidemiology (92D30)

Abstract: This paper is concerned with stochastic SIR and SEIR epidemic models on random networks in which individuals may rewire away from infected neighbors at some rate $omega$ (and reconnect to non-infectious individuals with probability $alpha$ or else simply drop the edge if $alpha=0$), so-called preventive rewiring. The models are denoted SIR-$omega$ and SEIR-$omega$, and we focus attention on the early stages of an outbreak, where we derive expression for the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and the expected degree of the infectious nodes $E(D_I)$ using two different approximation approaches. The first approach approximates the early spread of an epidemic by a branching process, whereas the second one uses pair approximation. The expressions are compared with the corresponding empirical means obtained from stochastic simulations of SIR-$omega$ and SEIR-$omega$ epidemics on Poisson and scale-free networks. Without rewiring of exposed nodes, the two approaches predict the same epidemic threshold and the same $E(D_I)$ for both types of epidemics, the latter being very close to the mean degree obtained from simulated epidemics over Poisson networks. Above the epidemic threshold, pairwise models overestimate the value of $R_0$ computed from simulations, which turns out to be very close to the one predicted by the branching process approximation. When exposed individuals also rewire with $alpha>0$ (perhaps unaware of being infected), the two approaches give different epidemic thresholds, with the branching process approximation being more in agreement with simulations.

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Cited in

(11)

• A stochastic SIR network epidemic model with preventive dropping of edges
• A non-Markovian SIR network model with fixed infectious period and preventive rewiring
• Susceptible-infected epidemics on evolving graphs
• Epidemic threshold in pairwise models for clustered networks: closures and fast correlations
• On the early epidemic dynamics for pairwise models
• Outbreak analysis of an SIS epidemic model with rewiring
• The Euler characteristic as a topological marker for outbreaks in vector-borne disease
• Adaptive dynamical networks
• Epidemics on networks with preventive rewiring
• SIR epidemics on evolving Erdős-Rényi graphs
• To trace or not to trace: analytical insights from network-based contact-tracing models

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