Reproduction numbers for epidemic models with households and other social structures. I: Definition and calculation of R₀

DOI10.1016/J.MBS.2011.10.009MaRDI QIDQ433678zbMATHOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Lorenzo Pellis, Pieter Trapman, Frank Ball

Publication date 5 July 2012

Published in Mathematical Biosciences (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1410.4469

zbMATH Keywords

basic reproduction numberbranching processesSIR epidemicworkplaces

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Applications of branching processes (60J85) Probabilistic models, generic numerical methods in probability and statistics (65C20) Social networks; opinion dynamics (91D30)

Abstract: In this paper we consider epidemic models of directly transmissible SIR (susceptible $o$ infective $o$ recovered) and SEIR (with an additional latent class) infections in fully-susceptible populations with a social structure, consisting either of households or of households and workplaces. We review most reproduction numbers defined in the literature for these models, including the basic reproduction number $R_0$ introduced in the companion paper of this, for which we provide a simpler, more elegant derivation. Extending previous work, we provide a complete overview of the inequalities among these reproduction numbers and resolve some open questions. Special focus is put on the exponential-growth-associated reproduction number $R_r$, which is loosely defined as the estimate of $R_0$ based on the observed exponential growth of an emerging epidemic obtained when the social structure is ignored. We show that for the vast majority of the models considered in the literature $R_{r}geq{R}_0$ when $R_{0}ge1$ and $R_{r}leq{R}_0$ when $R_{0}le1$. We show that, in contrast to models without social structure, vaccination of a fraction $1-1/R_0$ of the population, chosen uniformly at random, with a perfect vaccine is usually insufficient to prevent large epidemics. In addition, we provide significantly sharper bounds than the existing ones for bracketing the critical vaccination coverage between two analytically tractable quantities, which we illustrate by means of extensive numerical examples.

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