Reproduction numbers for epidemic models with households and other social structures. I: Definition and calculation of R₀

DOI10.1016/J.MBS.2011.10.009zbMATH Open1241.92067arXiv1410.4469OpenAlexW2041590395WikidataQ43115390 ScholiaQ43115390MaRDI QIDQ433678FDOQ433678

Authors: Lorenzo Pellis, Pieter Trapman, Frank Ball 

Publication date: 5 July 2012

Published in: Mathematical Biosciences (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: In this paper we consider epidemic models of directly transmissible SIR (susceptible $o$ infective $o$ recovered) and SEIR (with an additional latent class) infections in fully-susceptible populations with a social structure, consisting either of households or of households and workplaces. We review most reproduction numbers defined in the literature for these models, including the basic reproduction number $R_0$ introduced in the companion paper of this, for which we provide a simpler, more elegant derivation. Extending previous work, we provide a complete overview of the inequalities among these reproduction numbers and resolve some open questions. Special focus is put on the exponential-growth-associated reproduction number $R_r$, which is loosely defined as the estimate of $R_0$ based on the observed exponential growth of an emerging epidemic obtained when the social structure is ignored. We show that for the vast majority of the models considered in the literature $R_{r}geq{R}_0$ when $R_{0}ge1$ and $R_{r}leq{R}_0$ when $R_{0}le1$. We show that, in contrast to models without social structure, vaccination of a fraction $1-1/R_0$ of the population, chosen uniformly at random, with a perfect vaccine is usually insufficient to prevent large epidemics. In addition, we provide significantly sharper bounds than the existing ones for bracketing the critical vaccination coverage between two analytically tractable quantities, which we illustrate by means of extensive numerical examples.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1410.4469

Recommendations

• The basic reproduction number, \(R_0\), in structured populations
• An introduction to the basic reproduction number in mathematical epidemiology
• The concept of R_o in epidemic theory
• On the basic reproduction number of reaction-diffusion epidemic models
• The many guises of \(R_0\) (a didactic note)

zbMATH Keywords

basic reproduction numberbranching processesSIR epidemicworkplaces

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Applications of branching processes (60J85) Probabilistic models, generic numerical methods in probability and statistics (65C20) Social networks; opinion dynamics (91D30)

Cites Work

• Stochastic epidemic models and their statistical analysis
• Percolation
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Final size distributions for epidemics
• Epidemics with two levels of mixing
• Stochastic and deterministic models for SIS epidemics among a population partitioned into households
• A general model for stochastic SIR epidemics with two levels of mixing
• The effect of household distribution on transmission and control of highly infectious diseases
• Reproduction numbers for epidemic models with households and other social structures. II: comparisons and implications for vaccination
• Threshold behaviour and final outcome of an epidemic on a random network with household structure
• A unified approach to the distribution of total size and total area under the trajectory of infectives in epidemic models
• Threshold limit theorems for some epidemic processes
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Branching Processes
• Epidemic growth rate and household reproduction number in communities of households, schools and workplaces
• Reproductive numbers, epidemic spread and control in a community of households
• On analytical approaches to epidemics on networks
• The relationship between real-time and discrete-generation models of epidemic spread
• Analysis of a stochastic SIR epidemic on a random network incorporating household structure
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Epidemic prediction and control in clustered populations
• The type-reproduction number \(T\) in models for infectious disease control
• Strong approximations for epidemic models
• Stochastic multitype SIR epidemics among a population partitioned into households
• A unified analysis of the final size and severity distribution in collective Reed-Frost epidemic processes
• Reproduction numbers for epidemics on networks using pair approximation
• Bounding the Size and Probability of Epidemics on Networks
• Branching approximation for the collective epidemic model
• Symmetric sampling procedures, general epidemic processes and their threshold limit theorems
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Abel-Gontcharoff pseudopolynomials and the exact final outcome of SIR epidemic models (III)
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• The growth of the infinite long-range percolation cluster

Cited In (36)

• On the calculation of \(R_0\) using submodels
• Reproduction numbers for epidemic models with households and other social structures. II: comparisons and implications for vaccination
• Stochastic SIR epidemics in a population with households and schools
• The basic reproduction number, \(R_0\), in structured populations
• The impact of household structure on disease-induced herd immunity
• Design and analysis of infectious disease studies. Abstracts from the workshop held February 18--24, 2018
• Modelling under-reporting in epidemics
• Stochastic modelling of age-structured population with time and size dependence of immigration rate
• Choice of antiviral allocation scheme for pandemic influenza depends on strain transmissibility, delivery delay and stockpile size
• Real-time growth rate for general stochastic SIR epidemics on unclustered networks
• Final attack ratio in SIR epidemic models for multigroup populations
• Multi-type branching processes modeling of nosocomial epidemics
• The many guises of \(R_0\) (a didactic note)
• Designing an optimal sequence of non-pharmaceutical interventions for controlling COVID-19
• The impacts of spatial-temporal heterogeneity of human-to-human contacts on the extinction probability of infectious disease from branching process model
• Analytic calculation of finite-population reproductive numbers for direct- and vector-transmitted diseases with homogeneous mixing
• An introduction to the basic reproduction number in mathematical epidemiology
• A graph-theoretic method for the basic reproduction number in continuous time epidemiological models
• Household demographic determinants of Ebola epidemic risk
• Stochastic monotonicity and continuity properties of functions defined on Crump-Mode-Jagers branching processes, with application to vaccination in epidemic modelling
• The impact of contact structure and mixing on control measures and disease-induced herd immunity in epidemic models: a mean-field model perspective
• An intuitive formulation for the reproductive number for the spread of diseases in heterogeneous populations
• On the definition and the computation of the type-reproduction number \(T\) for structured populations in heterogeneous environments
• Total Progeny of Crump-Mode-Jagers Branching Processes: An Application to Vaccination in Epidemic Modelling
• The dynamics of vector-borne relapsing diseases
• On the exact measure of disease spread in stochastic epidemic models
• Reproductive number
• SIR epidemics and vaccination on random graphs with clustering
• The type-reproduction number \(T\) in models for infectious disease control
• On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio \(R_ 0\) in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations
• Relations between deterministic and stochastic thresholds for disease extinction in continuous- and discrete-time infectious disease models
• Epidemics on random intersection graphs
• On the reproduction number in epidemics
• A network epidemic model with preventive rewiring: comparative analysis of the initial phase
• Evaluation of vaccination strategies for SIR epidemics on random networks incorporating household structure
• A household SIR epidemic model incorporating time of day effects

This page was built for publication: Reproduction numbers for epidemic models with households and other social structures. I: Definition and calculation of \(R_{0}\)

Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q433678)