Epidemic prediction and control in clustered populations
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Publication:1670604
DOI10.1016/J.JTBI.2010.12.009zbMATH Open1405.92254arXiv1012.1974OpenAlexW1977869039WikidataQ51626248 ScholiaQ51626248MaRDI QIDQ1670604FDOQ1670604
Authors: Peng Zhang 
Publication date: 6 September 2018
Published in: Journal of Theoretical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)
Abstract: There has been much recent interest in modelling epidemics on networks, particularly in the presence of substantial clustering. Here, we develop pairwise methods to answer questions that are often addressed using epidemic models, in particular: on the basis of potential observations early in an outbreak, what can be predicted about the epidemic outcomes and the levels of intervention necessary to control the epidemic? We find that while some results are independent of the level of clustering (early growth predicts the level of `leaky' vaccine needed for control and peak time, while the basic reproductive ratio predicts the random vaccination threshold) the relationship between other quantities is very sensitive to clustering.
Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1012.1974
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Cited In (17)
- Clustering for epidemics on networks: a geometric approach
- Reproduction numbers for epidemic models with households and other social structures. I: Definition and calculation of \(R_{0}\)
- Mixing patterns among epidemic groups
- Novel epidemic models on PSO-based networks
- Real-time growth rate for general stochastic SIR epidemics on unclustered networks
- The epidemic model based on the approximation for third-order motifs on networks
- Individual-based model for the control of bovine viral diarrhea spread in livestock trade networks
- Monitoring and prediction of an epidemic outbreak using syndromic observations
- Link removal for the control of stochastically evolving epidemics over networks: a comparison of approaches
- Compact pairwise models for epidemics with multiple infectious stages on degree heterogeneous and clustered networks
- SIR dynamics in random networks with communities
- Dynamics of multi-stage infections on networks
- Epidemic threshold in pairwise models for clustered networks: closures and fast correlations
- An individual-based modeling framework for infectious disease spreading in clustered complex networks
- SIR dynamics with infection age in complex heterogeneous networks
- Higher-order structure and epidemic dynamics in clustered networks
- Exact analytical expressions for the final epidemic size of an sir model on small networks
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