Epidemic prediction and control in clustered populations
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Abstract: There has been much recent interest in modelling epidemics on networks, particularly in the presence of substantial clustering. Here, we develop pairwise methods to answer questions that are often addressed using epidemic models, in particular: on the basis of potential observations early in an outbreak, what can be predicted about the epidemic outcomes and the levels of intervention necessary to control the epidemic? We find that while some results are independent of the level of clustering (early growth predicts the level of `leaky' vaccine needed for control and peak time, while the basic reproductive ratio predicts the random vaccination threshold) the relationship between other quantities is very sensitive to clustering.
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- Authors' reply to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Jason Wyse, Dhorasso Temfack, Eishita Yadav and James Sweeney's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Michael Whitehouse, Lorenzo Rimella, and Nick Whiteley's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Robert Verity, Samir Bhatt, Anne Cori, Seth Flaxman, and Swapnil Mishra's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Ondřej Vencálek's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Mike Tildesley's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Yu Tian, Tan Meng, Maozai Tian, and Zhaoya Zhou's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- StatGroup-19's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Andrej Srakar's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- David Spiegelhalter's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Garib Nath Singh's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Stephen Senn's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Alex Selby's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Professor Lorenzo Pellis' contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Geert Molenberghs' contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Stuart McDonald's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Antonello Maruotti, Saleh Ibrahim, Emilio Porcu, and Horst Simon's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Yuhang Liu, Weihao Wang, Weng-Kee Wong, and Wei Zhu's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Kuldeep Kumar's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Matt Keeling's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Victor Richmond Jose's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Oliver Johnson's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- John Ioannidis' contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Thomas House's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Edward Hill's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Leonhard Held and Maria Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Professor Ian Hall's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Jean Fisch's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Thomas R. Fanshawe's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Zhou Fang's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Solveig Engebretsen, Alfonso Diz-Lois Palomares, Birgitte Freiesleben de Blasio, Arnoldo Frigessi, Geir Storvik, and Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Louise Dyson's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Erengul Dodd, Jonathan J. Forster, and Jason Hilton's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Peter J. Diggle's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Giacomo de Nicola's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- John Dagpunar's contribution to the discussion of `some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response' by wood et al.
- Dr Arun Peter Chind's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Fergus Chadwick, Dirk Husmeier, and Jason Matthiopoulos's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Tom Britton's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Luke A. Barratt's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Adrien Allorant's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Sunetra Gupta's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Kevin Fong, Tim Cook, and Charlotte Summers' contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Paul Birrell, Joel Kandiah, and Daniela de Angelis' contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Jonathan Rougier's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Nick Andrews' contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Ursula Berger, Göran Kauermann, and Helmut Küchenhoff's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Pieter Streicher and Alex Broadbent's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Nicholas Fisher, Noel Cressie and Dennis Trewin's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Irons' contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- M. Gabriela, M. Gomes, Ibrahim Mohammed and Chris Robertson's contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Daniela de Angelis' invited contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response. With contributions from Joel Kandian and Paul Birrell
- Sheila M. Bird's invited contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Peter Goldblatt's invited contribution to the discussion of: ``Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
- Dynamics of pairwise-based SIS epidemic models on clustered networks with higher-order interactions
- Real-time growth rate for general stochastic SIR epidemics on unclustered networks
- Dynamics of multi-stage infections on networks
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