Compact pairwise models for epidemics with multiple infectious stages on degree heterogeneous and clustered networks

DOI10.1016/J.JTBI.2016.07.015zbMATH Open1344.92179arXiv1602.05227OpenAlexW2280478844WikidataQ40611317 ScholiaQ40611317MaRDI QIDQ309249FDOQ309249

Authors: Istvan Z. Kiss, N. Sherborne, K. B. Blyuss 

Publication date: 7 September 2016

Published in: Journal of Theoretical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: This paper presents a compact pairwise model that describes the spread of multi-stage epidemics on networks. The multi-stage model corresponds to a gamma-distributed infectious period which interpolates between the classical Markovian models with exponentially distributed infectious period and epidemics with a constant infectious period. We show how the compact approach leads to a system of equations whose size is independent of the range of node degrees, thus significantly reducing the complexity of the model. Network clustering is incorporated into the model to provide a more accurate representation of realistic contact networks, and the accuracy of proposed closures is analysed for different levels of clustering and number of infection stages. Our results support recent findings that standard closure techniques are likely to perform better when the infectious period is constant.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1602.05227

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zbMATH Keywords

clusteringmoment closuresnon-Markovian recoverypairwise approximation

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of Markov chains and discrete-time Markov processes on general state spaces (social mobility, learning theory, industrial processes, etc.) (60J20) Epidemiology (92D30) Social networks; opinion dynamics (91D30)

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Cited In (5)

• Global stability of multi‐group SAIRS epidemic models
• Coupled dynamics of SIRS-UAU disease-awareness spreading on multiplex networks
• Staged progression model for epidemic spread on homogeneous and heterogeneous networks
• Pairwise approximation for SIR -type network epidemics with non-Markovian recovery
• A class of pairwise models for epidemic dynamics on weighted networks

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