Dynamics of multi-stage infections on networks

DOI10.1007/S11538-015-0109-1zbMATH Open1339.92091arXiv1503.08676OpenAlexW3100557165WikidataQ40505456 ScholiaQ40505456MaRDI QIDQ904522FDOQ904522

Authors: K. B. Blyuss, Istvan Z. Kiss, N. Sherborne 

Publication date: 13 January 2016

Published in: Bulletin of Mathematical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: This paper investigates the dynamics of infectious diseases with a non-exponentially distributed infectious period. This is achieved by considering a multi-stage infection model on networks. Using pairwise approximation with a standard closure, a number of important characteristics of disease dynamics are derived analytically, including the final size of an epidemic and a threshold for epidemic outbreaks, and it is shown how these quantities depend on disease characteristics, as well as the number of disease stages. Stochastic simulations of dynamics on networks are performed and compared to the results of pairwise models for several realistic examples of infectious diseases to illustrate the role played by the number of stages in the disease dynamics. These results show that a higher number of disease stages results in faster epidemic outbreaks with a higher peak prevalence and a larger final size of the epidemic. The agreement between the pairwise and simulation methods is excellent in the cases we consider.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1503.08676

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zbMATH Keywords

networkfinal sizepairwise approximationinfectious period

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30)

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Cited In (14)

• A multi-stage SIR model for rumor spreading
• Dynamics of competing strains with saturated infectivity and mutation on networks
• On the Power of Planned Infections in Networks
• \(SI\) infection on a dynamic partnership network: characterization of \(R_0\)
• The Application of Supervised and Unsupervised Computational Predictive Models to Simulate the COVID19 Pandemic
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• On the optimal control of SIR model with Erlang-distributed infectious period: isolation strategies
• Modeling the spread of multiple contagions on multilayer networks
• A discrete state-structured model on networks with two transmission modes: global dynamics analysis
• Staged progression model for epidemic spread on homogeneous and heterogeneous networks
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• Monotonic and Non-Monotonic Epidemiological Models on Networks
• Pairwise approximation for SIR -type network epidemics with non-Markovian recovery
• Superinfection behaviors on scale-free networks with competing strains

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