A hierarchical framework for correcting under-reporting in count data
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Publication:5208048
Abstract: Tuberculosis poses a global health risk and Brazil is among the top twenty countries by absolute mortality. However, this epidemiological burden is masked by under-reporting, which impairs planning for effective intervention. We present a comprehensive investigation and application of a Bayesian hierarchical approach to modelling and correcting under-reporting in tuberculosis counts, a general problem arising in observational count data. The framework is applicable to fully under-reported data, relying only on an informative prior distribution for the mean reporting rate to supplement the partial information in the data. Covariates are used to inform both the true count generating process and the under-reporting mechanism, while also allowing for complex spatio-temporal structures. We present several sensitivity analyses based on simulation experiments to aid the elicitation of the prior distribution for the mean reporting rate and decisions relating to the inclusion of covariates. Both prior and posterior predictive model checking are presented, as well as a critical evaluation of the approach.
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Cited in
(11)- The complexity of finding and enumerating optimal subgraphs to represent spatial correlation
- Improved inference for areal unit count data using graph-based optimisation
- A marginal moment matching approach for fitting endemic‐epidemic models to underreported disease surveillance counts
- Under-reporting of COVID-19 in the northern health authority region of British Columbia
- Testing of Poisson mean with under-reported counts
- Multivariate hierarchical frameworks for modeling delayed reporting in count data
- Dealing with under-reported variables: an information theoretic solution
- The complexity of finding optimal subgraphs to represent spatial correlation
- Bias correction in clustered underreported data
- A Bayesian model of underreporting for sexual assault on college campuses
- A hierarchical framework for correcting under-reporting in count data
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