Downstream Effects of Upstream Causes
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Publication:5208051
DOI10.1080/01621459.2019.1574226zbMATH Open1428.62493arXiv1705.07926OpenAlexW3104070418MaRDI QIDQ5208051FDOQ5208051
Michael A. Mallin, Michael G. Hudgens, Bradley C. Saul
Publication date: 15 January 2020
Published in: Journal of the American Statistical Association (Search for Journal in Brave)
Abstract: The United States Environmental Protection Agency considers nutrient pollution in stream ecosystems one of the U.S. most pressing environmental challenges. But limited independent replicates, lack of experimental randomization, and space- and time-varying confounding handicap causal inference on effects of nutrient pollution. In this paper the causal g-methods developed by Robins and colleagues are extended to allow for exposures to vary in time and space in order to assess the effects of nutrient pollution on chlorophyll a, a proxy for algal production. Publicly available data from the North Carolina Cape Fear River and a simulation study are used to show how causal effects of upstream nutrient concentrations on downstream chlorophyll a levels may be estimated from typical water quality monitoring data. Estimates obtained from the parametric g-formula, a marginal structural model, and a structural nested model indicate that chlorophyll a concentrations at Lock and Dam 1 were influenced by nitrate concentrations measured 86 to 109 km upstream, an area where four major industrial and municipal point sources discharge wastewater.
Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.07926
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