Survivor-complier effects in the presence of selection on treatment, with application to a study of prompt ICU admission

DOI10.1080/01621459.2018.1469990MaRDI QIDQ5229895zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Edward H. Kennedy, Steve Harris, Luke Keele

Publication date 19 August 2019

Published in Journal of the American Statistical Association (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1704.05706

zbMATH Keywords

observational studyinstrumental variablesinfluence functionpartial identificationsemiparametric theorycensoring by death

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Nonparametric estimation (62G05) Censored data models (62N01) Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10)

Abstract: Pre-treatment selection or censoring (`selection on treatment') can occur when two treatment levels are compared ignoring the third option of neither treatment, in `censoring by death' settings where treatment is only defined for those who survive long enough to receive it, or in general in studies where the treatment is only defined for a subset of the population. Unfortunately, the standard instrumental variable (IV) estimand is not defined in the presence of such selection, so we consider estimating a new survivor-complier causal effect. Although this effect is generally not identified under standard IV assumptions, it is possible to construct sharp bounds. We derive these bounds and give a corresponding data-driven sensitivity analysis, along with nonparametric yet efficient estimation methods. Importantly, our approach allows for high-dimensional confounding adjustment, and valid inference even after employing machine learning. Incorporating covariates can tighten bounds dramatically, especially when they are strong predictors of the selection process. We apply the methods in a UK cohort study of critical care patients to examine the mortality effects of prompt admission to the intensive care unit, using ICU bed availability as an instrument.

Recommendations

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Cited in

(6)

• Estimation of causal effects using instrumental variables with nonignorable missing covariates: application to effect of type of delivery NICU on premature infants
• Sensitivity Analysis via the Proportion of Unmeasured Confounding
• Sharp instruments for classifying compliers and generalizing causal effects
• Biased Encouragements and Heterogeneous Effects in an Instrumental Variable Study of Emergency General Surgical Outcomes
• Treatment effect bounds: an application to Swan-Ganz catheterization
• An Automated Approach to Causal Inference in Discrete Settings

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