A stochastic SIR model with contact-tracing: large population limits and statistical inference

DOI10.1080/17513750801993266zbMATH Open1315.92075arXiv0807.3462OpenAlexW3102551429WikidataQ84759761 ScholiaQ84759761MaRDI QIDQ5258024FDOQ5258024

Héctor de Arazoza, Viet Chi Tran, Stephan Clémençon

Publication date: 25 June 2015

Published in: Journal of Biological Dynamics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: A stochastic epidemic model accounting for the effect of contact-tracing on the spread of an infectious disease is studied. Precisely, individuals identified as infected may contribute to detecting other infectious individuals by providing information related to persons with whom they have had possibly infectious contacts. The population evolves through demographic, infection and detection processes, in a way that its temporal evolution is described by a stochastic Markov process, of which the component accounting for the contact-tracing feature is assumed to be valued in a space of point measures. For adequate scalings of the demographic, infection and detection rates, it is shown to converge to the weak deterministic solution of a PDE system, as a parameter n, interpreted as the population size roughly speaking, becomes large. From the perspective of the analysis of infectious disease data, this approximation result may serve as a key tool for exploring the asymptotic properties of standard inference methods such as maximum likelihood estimation. We state preliminary statistical results in this context. Eventually, relation of the model to the available data of the HIV epidemic in Cuba, in which country a contact-tracing detection system has been set up since 1986, is investigated and numerical applications are carried out.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/0807.3462

zbMATH Keywords

maximum likelihood estimationcentral limit theoremHIVmathematical epidemiologystochastic SIR modelmeasure-valued Markov processlarge population approximationcontact-tracing

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of Markov chains and discrete-time Markov processes on general state spaces (social mobility, learning theory, industrial processes, etc.) (60J20) Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Epidemiology (92D30)

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Cited In (18)

• General epidemiological models: law of large numbers and contact tracing
• Contact tracing \& super-spreaders in the branching-process model
• Contact tracing in stochastic and deterministic epidemic models
• HIV with contact tracing: a case study in approximate Bayesian computation
• Nonparametric adaptive inference of birth and death models in a large population limit
• Stochastic epidemic models revisited: analysis of some continuous performance measures
• COVID-19 pandemic control: balancing detection policy and lockdown intervention under ICU sustainability
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• A NEW INFERENCE STRATEGY FOR GENERAL POPULATION MORTALITY TABLES
• A spatial stochastic epidemic model: law of large numbers and central limit theorem
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• Respect the Unstable: Delays and Saturation in Contact Tracing for Disease Control
• A general stochastic model for sporophytic self-incompatibility

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