Stochastic epidemic models featuring contact tracing with delays

DOI10.1016/J.MBS.2015.05.007zbMATH Open1356.92077arXiv1512.01586OpenAlexW898595776WikidataQ40875767 ScholiaQ40875767MaRDI QIDQ899074FDOQ899074

Frank Ball, Edward S. Knock, Philip D. O'Neill

Publication date: 21 December 2015

Published in: Mathematical Biosciences (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious contacts, who are then removed if they have not been already after some tracing delay. The epidemic is analysed via an approximating, modified birth-death process, for which a type-reproduction number is derived in terms of unnamed individuals, that is shown to be infinite when the contact rate is sufficiently large. We obtain explicit results under the assumption of either constant or exponentially distributed infectious periods, including the epidemic extinction probability in the former case. Numerical illustrations show that, while the distributions of latent periods and delays have an effect on the spread of the epidemic, the assumption of whether the delays experienced by individuals infected by the same individual are of the same or independent length makes little difference.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1512.01586

zbMATH Keywords

contact tracingbranching processreproduction numberstochastic epidemic

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Applications of branching processes (60J85)

Cites Work

• Contact tracing in stochastic and deterministic epidemic models
• Title not available (Why is that?)
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• The type-reproduction number \(T\) in models for infectious disease control
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Cited In (8)

• Exact and approximate formulas for contact tracing on random trees
• Contact tracing \& super-spreaders in the branching-process model
• Contact tracing in stochastic and deterministic epidemic models
• An SEIR network epidemic model with manual and digital contact tracing allowing delays
• Analysing the effect of test-and-trace strategy in an SIR epidemic model
• The effect of delay on contact tracing
• A model for an epidemic with contact tracing and cluster isolation, and a detection paradox
• Respect the Unstable: Delays and Saturation in Contact Tracing for Disease Control

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